Liquidity Risk Is Not Investment Risk - And Conflating Them Is The Costliest Mistake
When evaluating an AIF, many investors focus on a single idea of risk. But there are two separate questions you should ask:
Investment risk is the chance that your investment underperforms. The portfolio company doesn't grow as expected, market conditions shift or the fund sells its investments at lower than projected valuations. This is the risk every investor knowingly takes. The risk is reduced by smart investment selection, thorough due diligence, diversification as well as the fund manager's skill.
“Liquidity risk, on the other hand, is about when you can access your money. Even if the fund is meeting its objectives and the underlying investments are doing well, your capital may remain locked in until the fund reaches the appropriate stage to exit those investments. That isn't a sign that the fund is underperforming; it's simply how long-term private market investing is designed to work,” says Gupta.
This distinction matters because many investors assume that if their money is locked in, the investment must also be riskier. But that isn't necessarily true.
Category II AIFs may have a thoroughly researched investment strategy, robust governance and high-quality assets so the investment risk can be very low. Yet, they can still have high liquidity risk simply because your capital is committed for the life of the fund.
“On the other hand, a listed stock is highly liquid - you can usually sell it on any trading day. But that doesn't make it a safer investment. If the company performs poorly, the value of your investment can still decline significantly,” says Gupta.
In simple terms, the ability to exit quickly does not determine how risky an investment is. Likewise, a lock-in period does not automatically make an investment unsafe.