Dangerous To Judge Markets Based On One Factor, Says Howard Marks

Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, while speaking at the Moneycontrol Global Wealth Summit 2025, pointed out India’s status as a promising economy. He talked about market trends, geopolitical risks and transformative technologies.

India’s Rising Star

Marks also talked about India’s structural advantages. Marks said “India has incredible opportunities. Incredibly constructive government.” He linked India’s growth to shifting global sentiment: “India has benefitted from the fact that people are less positive on China.” Expressing long-term optimism, he urged investors, “You don’t want to miss out on India of the next ten years.”

Value Investing Revival & Market Realities

Predicting a resurgence of value-focused strategies, Marks noted, “Growth stocks have done well for 16 years due to optimism. But there will come a time for value.” He cautioned against simplistic market assessments. “It’s dangerous to judge markets based on one factor—many variables matter,” as per Marks. Raising questions on valuation, he asked, “How much superiority is priced into companies today? Is the increase in superiority and valuations appropriate?”

AI’s Promise and Peril

He also acknowledged AI’s disruptive potential.“It is expected to change the world, which it could.” Marks drew parallels to past bubbles. “Most bubbles are built around something new, like the internet in 1999. Imagination has no precedent,” he added.

Trump’s Policies & Global Risks

Addressing U.S. political dynamics, Marks warned of inflationary risks under Donald Trump. “His tariffs could have an inflationary impact. We have a pro-business president who introduced uncertainties,” Marks said as quoted by Moneycontrol.

China’s Challenges

Despite China’s strengths in education and workforce, Marks flagged demographic headwinds. “China has great potential but faces problems of a declining population,” as quoted by Moneycontrol.

Diversity in Modern Success

Marks also talked about evolving opportunities. “Today, success isn’t limited to being a white male in America. It’s not dependent on gender, race, or vocation.” 

He humorously added, “Warren Buffett’s and my lottery was being born white males in mid-20th century America,” as quoted by Moneycontrol report.

Cautious Optimism

Marks advised prudence amid current market conditions. “I don’t see massive psychological excesses today. Recent events reduced enthusiasm, now isn’t the time for unusual investments.” On leverage, he reiterated timeless wisdom. “People forget leverage magnifies losses during downturns—a lesson relearned every generation.”

He termed U.S. interest rates “within normalcy” and praised the economy’s steady performance. “It’s not booming, so no bust is needed. Today’s rates are appropriate.”