Gold And Silver Price Today: Precious Metals Rebound Over 6% On Fed Rate Cut Hopes; US Jobs Data In Focus

Gold and silver prices bounced back on February 11 after weaker-than-expected US retail sales data increased hopes that the world’s largest economy may be slowing down, strengthening expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The recovery rally also comes ahead of the release of the much-awaited US jobs data due later today, which will further give clues on the Fed’s rate cut trajectory.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), as of 5:30 PM, the April gold futures surged as much as 2.20 per cent to trade at Rs 1,60,250 per 10 grams. The March silver futures on the MCX jumped up to 6.66 per cent to hit Rs 2,69,373 per kilogram.

In the international markets, around the same time on the COMEX, the April gold futures rallied nearly 2 per cent to hit an intraday high of $5,128.80 per ounce, while the March silver futures gained around 6.50 per cent to $85.54 an ounce.

The prices of the precious metals underwent significant volatility over the past few weeks. The silver futures in the domestic derivatives market swung from its record high of Rs 4,20,048 per kilogram to a recent low of Rs 2,25,805 per kilogram in a matter of a few sessions, around late January and early February. Similarly, the gold futures tumbled from their record high of Rs 1,93,096 per 10 grams to a recent low of Rs 1,37,065 per 10 grams.

What US Retail Sales Data Suggests

According to reports, the US December retail sales data showed that consumer spending, which forms the backbone of the American economy, is beginning to slow. Retail sales measure how much people are spending across stores and online platforms, and any weakness in this data suggests that households are becoming more cautious.

This slowdown comes at a time when inflation is still high, and the job market is beginning to show signs of strain.

If this weakness persists, it could signal a softer outlook for the economy in the coming months. Consumption accounts for a significant share of US economic output, so any sustained dip in spending can weigh on growth prospects.

If economic growth slows, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates further this year to support growth.

What CME FedWatch Tool Suggests On Fed Rate Cuts

Market participants are increasingly betting that the Fed could begin cutting rates in the second quarter if growth slows or inflation eases further.

For the upcoming March 18 policy meeting, traders largely expect the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50-3.75 per cent range. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) FedWatch Tool suggests that about 80.40 per cent of traders think the Fed will hold rates. The likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut is much lower at 19.60 per cent.

However, for the April 29 meeting, traders are assigning a 36 per cent probability to a 25 bps rate cut. There is also a smaller, but notable, 5.30 per cent chance of a sharper 50 bps cut, which would take the policy rate down to the 3.00–3.25 per cent range.

By the June 17 meeting, the probability of a 25 bps cut rises to 49.50 per cent. At the same time, the likelihood of a deeper 50 basis point cut increases to 23.50 per cent.

Why January US Jobs Report Matters

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics is set to release the jobs report at 6:00 PM IST (8:30 AM ET). The report was delayed by five days because of the brief government shutdown.

The US jobs report is the single most important barometer of the health of the world’s largest economy. Released every month, it tells investors how many jobs were created, what the unemployment rate looks like and how fast wages are rising.

The January 2026 report comes at a particularly critical juncture.

At a time when investors are trying to assess whether the US economy is finally slowing under the burden of high interest rates, the data could tilt expectations decisively. If hiring remains strong and wages continue to rise at a brisk pace, it would signal that the labour market is still tight. That, in turn, would give the Fed little urgency to cut rates.

However, in case of slower hiring, rising unemployment or easing wages, it would reinforce the view that restrictive policy is not working in favour of the world’s largest economy. That would strengthen the case for rate cuts in the coming months.

Gold-Silver Ratio Suggests Further Room For Rally

Another key reason for the rally in gold prices is the gold–silver ratio, a key indicator that tracks how many ounces of silver are required to buy one ounce of gold.

Prathamesh Mallya, deputy vice president, research, non-agri commodities at Angel One, told Outlook Money: “Gold prices have been up today as investors globally continue to look at the ratio of two precious metals, i.e. gold-silver ratio.”

The gold-silver ratio currently stands around 61. Historically, when the ratio rises above 80, it tends to signal that silver is relatively undervalued compared to gold.

Mallya suggests that from current levels, there is still scope for the ratio to move higher. A further rise in the ratio from 61 would indicate that gold continues to outperform silver in the near term.