Nifty Set For 8-Week Losing Streak, Longest In 25 Years: But Is It Really That Bad?

The Nifty 50 closed at 22,620.45, down 95.75 points or 0.75 per cent on September 30, 2026, and is now on the verge of its eighth consecutive weekly loss. If the index closes below 23,140.50, on October 1, the level at which it closed on September 25, the streak will be the longest since 2001. October 2, is a market holiday on the occasion of Gandhi Jayanti, making October 1 the last session of the week.

To break the run, the Nifty would need to gain about 520 points, or 2.30 per cent, in a single day. That is a big ask for an index that has lost 2.24 per cent this week alone.

Eight Weeks Of Losses, But A Milder Fall

The Nifty fell 5.82 per cent in the first seven weeks of the current losing streak. Including this week’s decline so far, the cumulative fall is around 8 per cent. That is much smaller than the losses seen during previous extended sell-offs.

The seven-week losing streak that ended on September 21, 2001, erased 20.50 per cent from the Nifty. The seven-week decline that ended on July 4, 2008, was deeper at 22.1 per cent. In 2020, the seven-week decline that ended on April 3 wiped out 33.30 per cent.

Seven or more consecutive weekly declines have occurred only four times in the past 25 years, including two instances in 2001, followed by 2008 and 2020.

The Nifty’s longest losing streak was 10 weeks, ending on April 23, 1993, when the index fell 22.90 per cent. It then recorded a nine-week losing streak ending April 13, 2001, during which it lost 27.10 per cent.

If the Nifty ends this week lower, an eighth consecutive weekly decline would rank as the third-longest losing streak in its history, behind the 10-week and nine-week runs.

A losing streak measures the number of weeks the market has fallen, not the extent of the decline. By that measure, the current run looks severe, but the fall so far is much smaller than during previous extended sell-offs.

What Is Pulling The Market Down

The pressure is coming largely from outside India. Brent crude is trading around $103 a barrel, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.23 per cent. The rupee is quoting above 96 to the dollar. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold Indian equities worth Rs 25,662 crore in September, till the 29th.

A stalemate in peace talks between the US and Iran is adding to the unease. Investors fear that a prolonged stand-off will keep energy prices high and push inflation up, which would leave central banks with less room to ease.

Stock Market Outlook: What Analysts Expect For October

Market experts believe the sharp September correction will leave its mark on the start of the new month. Kkunal V Parar, vice-president of technical research and algo at Choice Broking, said he expects a choppy opening. 

“After the sharp fall we have seen in September, we expect October to remain volatile, at least in the initial part of the month,” he said. He added that a rebound is also possible after such a correction.

“From a technical point of view, the market has corrected sharply and is looking oversold in the short term, so a relief rally is quite possible,” he said, adding any bounce, however, would need support to last.

“But for that rally to sustain, we need better market breadth and some slowdown in FII selling,” Parar said. He also said a meaningful recovery would require improvement in crude oil prices, US Treasury yields, the rupee, and geopolitics.

Fund managers, meanwhile, are looking further out and see better times for corporate earnings in the second half of the financial year. Devender Singhal, senior fund manager at Kotak Mutual Fund, said the mood around earnings is likely to change. 

“While the H1FY27 period was fraught with negative earnings revisions and cautious comments by corporates amid high levels of global uncertainty, the H2FY27 environment looks more positive,” he said. He added that the market’s focus will move away from margins and toward earnings stabilisation and growth recovery.

Singhal also pointed to the health of the domestic economy. “The fundamentals in India still look solid, driven by services sector activity, government expenditure, healthy manufacturing performance and a positive investment cycle,” he added. He said that strong capex plans and order books in infrastructure, defence and industrials should add to stability.

He acknowledged that high commodity and energy prices could keep margins under pressure, but said higher volumes, operating leverage and better execution can still lift earnings. Financials, industrials, defence, capital goods and select consumption segments could remain relevant, he said. He expects the second half to see a shift from weak earnings to better delivery.