Stock Market Cues This Week: Crude Oil Prices, Inflation, GDP Data Among Other Triggers To Watch

Domestic equity benchmark indices were under immense pressure last week amid escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, as investors turned drastically cautious due to the rising global uncertainty. Both the benchmark indices extended their losing streak for a second straight week as sustained selling pressure and risk aversion weighing on the broader market.

During the week, the NSE Nifty 50 lost 728.20 points, or 2.89 per cent to settle at 24,450.45. Similarly, the BSE Sensex fell 2,368.29 points, or 2.91 per cent, to close at 78,918.90. This was the biggest weekly decline for the Nifty 50 since February 28, 2025, and for the Sensex since December 20, 2024.

At the same time, crude oil prices surged significantly during the week on fears of supply disruptions, which revived fears of global recession. Persistent outflows by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have further weighed on domestic equities, amplifying the recent volatility in the market.

Stock Market Cues to Watch this Week

Market participants across the board are now closely watching how equities trade in the coming sessions. Here are a few trigger points that the participants are likely to react to in the coming week, from March 9-13, 2026.

Crude Oil Prices

Since the US and Israel’s initial bombings on Iran on February 28, crude oil prices have spiked nearly 35 per cent. The movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit route, through which about one-fifth of global oil supply passes, has also been disrupted, raising supply risk concerns.

Higher oil prices tend to increase transportation and input costs, which eventually pushes inflation higher. Higher inflation prompts central banks across the world to hike interest rates in order to tackle price pressures.

FPI Selling

According to the data from National Securities Depository (NSDL), FPIs sold Indian equities worth Rs 22,631.60 crore from the secondary markets in just the previous four sessions.

Persistent FPI selling, along with several other factors, also weighed on the rupee. As a consequence, the rupee weakened about 1 per cent to 91.93 against the dollar.

US CPI Inflation

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation data for February on March 11, which could offer clues on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve. Any sign of persistent inflation may reduce the chances of early interest rate cuts, which could influence capital flows to emerging markets such as India and impact sentiment in domestic equities.

India CPI Inflation

The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release India’s CPI inflation data for February on March 12. The data will be closely watched to see whether the recent surge in global crude oil prices amid the Iran conflict is starting to reflect in domestic inflation.

US GDP Data

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025 on March 13, 2026. The data will offer a clearer picture of the pace of economic growth in the US amid the ongoing Iran war. At the same time, the agency will also publish its report on Personal Income and Outlays for January 2026, which will provide insights into what consumers are spending on.