Stock Market Next Week: RBI MPC, PMI Data, US Jobs Report And More To Watch

The stock market ended the week in the red, weighed down by geopolitical tensions, and continued selling by foreign investors. The week had started on a positive note, with benchmark indices advancing as softer crude oil prices and optimism over a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran boosted investor sentiment. The rally helped the Nifty move back above the 24,000 level early in the week.

However, market momentum weakened as the week progressed. Investors turned cautious after expectations of a quick resolution to tensions in West Asia diminished. Continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows also weighed on sentiment, leading to increased pressure on frontline stocks.

Selling intensified during the final trading session, particularly in the final 30 minutes towards the closing bell, as passive funds adjusted their portfolios to align with the latest MSCI index rebalancing. Weaker monsoon projections by the India Metereological Department (IMD) also contributed to the risk-off mood.

As a result, the Nifty 50 declined 0.72 per cent during the week to finish at 23,547.75, while the Sensex lost 0.85 per cent to close at 74,775.74.

Stock Market Cues To Watch Next Week

Markets are likely to take cues from several key events in the week of June 1–5, including important economic data releases and the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy decision. Investors will also keep an eye on developments in the US-Iran conflict, as well as movements in crude oil prices and the rupee, which could influence market sentiment.

June 1: Manufacturing Data And Auto Sales

Markets will begin the week by reacting to India's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May, released by S&P Global. The data provides an early indication of factory activity, demand conditions and business sentiment. Investors will also track monthly automobile sales numbers, which offer insights into consumer demand and economic activity.

The National Statistical Office's (NSO) Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data will be another key monitorable, as it reflects growth across manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors. Globally, investors will watch the US Manufacturing PMI for clues on the health of the world's largest economy.

June 3: US Services And Employment Data

The ADP employment report, along with the S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, will provide insights into economic momentum and inflation pressures in the US.

The data could influence expectations around future Federal Reserve policy, which in turn affects global capital flows, emerging-market currencies and foreign investor sentiment.

June 3-5: RBI MPC Outcome

The RBI's six member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet from June 3-5, and governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce its policy decision on June 5 from 10:00 AM onwards. The central bank's commentary on inflation, growth, liquidity conditions and global risks will be closely watched by market participants.

The policy outcome is particularly important for banking stocks, bond yields and the rupee. Investors will look for any signals on the future rate trajectory, liquidity measures and the RBI's assessment of food inflation, monsoon progress and global commodity prices.

June 5: GDP Data And US Jobs Report

The NSO will release India's provisional gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for FY26 and growth data for the March quarter. The numbers will provide a comprehensive picture of economic activity and could influence expectations around growth and policy.

The same day, investors will track the US non-farm payrolls report and unemployment rate. These indicators are closely watched globally as they often dictate expectations around the Federal Reserve's next moves.

Global Cues: US-Iran War, Crude Oil, Rupee

Developments in the US-Iran conflict will remain on investors' radar, given their potential impact on global risk sentiment and energy markets. Crude oil prices will be closely watched as higher oil costs can pressure India's inflation and trade balance.

Currency movements will also remain important. The rupee's performance against the US dollar could influence foreign portfolio flows and corporate earnings, particularly for export-oriented sectors.