Stock Market This Week: Kevin Warsh’s Speech, GDP, And US Jobs Data In Focus

The domestic stock market will enter the new week with investors facing a packed economic calendar after benchmark indices extended their correction for a third straight week.

Global interest-rate expectations, geopolitical developments, and volatility owing to the newly-implemented Closing Auction Session (CAS) will remain key drivers of sentiment. A sharp rebound in IT stocks on August 28, 2026, offered some relief after positive global technology cues, but it was not enough to pull the benchmarks out of weekly losses.

The BSE Sensex fell 276.32 points, or 0.35 per cent last week to settle at 77,264.51. The NSE Nifty declined 76.35 points, or 0.31 per cent, to close at 24,175.65.

Here are five key market cues investors will track this week.

1. Kevin Warsh’s Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole speech has sharply changed expectations around the US central bank’s next policy decision. Warsh said the US Fed still has work to do if underlying inflation does not move towards its 2 per cent target at a sufficient pace. He also argued that financial conditions do not appear restrictive enough.

His comments pushed up expectations of a September rate hike. The probability of a 25 basis point (bps) increase rose to around 57 per cent in the CME FedWatch tool, from about 35 per cent before his speech.

For Indian markets, a higher US rate outlook can keep Treasury yields and the dollar firm. That can put pressure on foreign portfolio flows into emerging markets, including India.

2. India’s Q1 FY27 GDP Data

India’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will be the biggest domestic macro trigger at the start of the week.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the Q1 FY27 GDP estimates on August 31 at 4 pm. The data will give investors the first broad reading of economic growth in FY27 and help assess whether domestic demand remains strong enough to offset pressure from global trade and geopolitical risks.

A stronger-than-expected GDP number could support equities, particularly domestic-facing sectors. A weak print could revive concerns over earnings growth and economic momentum.

3. August Manufacturing and Services PMI

Investors will also track India’s August purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings for an early assessment of economic activity in the second quarter of FY27.

The manufacturing PMI is due on September 1, followed by the services PMI on September 3. The readings will provide fresh signals on factory activity, new orders, employment, and business conditions. Services activity will be particularly important given its large contribution to India’s economic growth.

Any sharp slowdown could weigh on market sentiment after the recent correction. A resilient reading, on the other hand, could reinforce expectations that domestic growth remains intact.

4. August GST Collections

Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in August, due on September 1, will provide another early indicator of consumption and business activity.

Investors will look at the pace of growth in tax collection to assess the strength of domestic demand and government revenues.

5. US August Jobs Report

The biggest global market trigger will come on September 4 when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August employment report.

The report will include non-farm payrolls, unemployment and wage data. The BLS has confirmed that the August Employment Situation will be released at 8:30 am Eastern Time on September 4.

A strong payroll number could cement expectations of a September Fed rate hike, lifting US Treasury yields and the dollar, and putting pressure on emerging-market assets.

A weak jobs report could push rate-hike expectations lower and offer relief to equities.

For India, the immediate impact will likely be felt through foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows, the rupee, bond yields, and IT stocks.