RBI Measures May Bring $55-65 Billion Inflows, Support Balance Of Payments, Says SBI Report

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent measures to attract foreign capital could bring inflows of $55-65 billion during the current financial year, helping stabilise the rupee and improve the country's balance of payments (BoP), according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).

The report, published in SBI’s Ecowrap, said that RBI’s policy actions announced in February and June 2026 should be seen as a coordinated effort to attract more stable foreign capital, deepen domestic debt markets, and ease access to overseas funding.

Steps Taken to Support Foreign Currency Inflows

In its June 2026 monetary policy announcement the RBI introduced several measures to encourage foreign currency inflows. These include a concessional foreign exchange swap facility to support external commercial borrowings (ECBs) raised by public sector undertakings. The central bank has also extended a similar facility to banks for mobilising fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank [FCNR(B)] deposits with maturities ranging from 3-5 years.

According to the SBI report, the February 2026 measures focused on structural reforms and market development, while the June 2026 initiatives were aimed at attracting foreign currency inflows and supporting the rupee without increasing domestic interest rates.

Impact on Banking System

The SBI report said that inflows of $55-65 billion could help improve liquidity in the banking system. Deposit growth in FY27 could also rise to around 14.50-15 per cent, as against an expected credit growth of about 16 per cent.

As a result, the gap between credit and deposit growth, after adjusting for regulatory measures, could narrow by nearly Rs 1 lakh crore. This may also contribute to a further decline in the term structure of interest rates, the report added.

The report said that during FY14, when FCNR (B) deposits saw strong mobilisation, deposit growth and credit growth were nearly identical.

Balance of Payments Outlook

The report also revised its outlook for the country’s balance of payments. It now expects a surplus of $5-10 billion in FY27, compared with its earlier estimate of a deficit of $65-70 billion.

The current account deficit is projected to remain in the range of 1.50-1.70 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). The BoP records all money flowing into and out of the country, including trade in goods and services, remittances, foreign investment and external borrowings.

To support the rupee, the RBI has also introduced a dollar-rupee swap facility for fresh FCNR (B) deposits with maturities of 3-5 years. The facility became effective on June 8 and will remain available until October 16, 2026.