RBI MPC Meeting May Keep Rates Unchanged, Says SBI Research

Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) August 2026 monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, the latest SBI Research report has revealed that industry and personal loans have driven nearly 63 per cent of incremental bank credit growth during April-June 2026.

The research also expects RBI to keep the rates steady in the upcoming meeting. “The MPC may keep rates unchanged…but current backdrop has made soft language costlier: oil volatility, rupee pressure, external-flow caution and higher inflation projections make an explicitly dovish message less likely,” the report said.

Industry Credit Rises By Rs 1.87 Lakh Crore

The report’s analysis of sectoral credit data has shown that lending to industries has increased by Rs 1.87 lakh crore during the first quarter of FY27. Around half of the incremental industry credit has gone to four sectors, namely petroleum, coal products and nuclear fuels; infrastructure; chemicals; and engineering.

Petroleum, coal products and nuclear fuels have received the highest incremental credit at Rs 25,500 crore during the quarter. Engineering has followed with Rs 24,900 crore, while infrastructure has received Rs 21,700 crore and chemicals Rs 20,800 crore.

The report has also identified food processing and basic metals among the sectors that have recorded an increase in bank lending. Transport, construction and electronics have also contributed to the growth in incremental industry credit during the quarter.

Gold Loans Account For 42 Per Cent Of Personal Loan Growth

In the personal loan segment, loans against gold jewellery have emerged as the largest contributor to incremental credit growth.

Loans against gold jewellery have accounted for 42 per cent, or Rs 74,200 crore out of the Rs 1.738 lakh crore increase in personal loans during April-June 2026, the report said. The data has shown that industry and personal loans together have remained the key contributors to the expansion in bank credit during the first quarter of FY27.

Overall incremental bank credit has stood at Rs 5.669 lakh crore during April-June 2026, as against Rs 84,800 crore in the corresponding period of the previous financial year.

MPC Meeting Scheduled For August 3 To 5

The SBI Research report was released ahead of the RBI’s MPC meeting scheduled from August 3-5, 2026. The six-member MPC will review the country’s interest rate and monetary policy stance amid evolving domestic and global economic conditions.

The SBI Research report has flagged oil volatility, pressure on the rupee, caution around external flows, and higher inflation projections as factors that could influence the tone of the MPC’s communication.

The MPC will decide on the policy during the three-day meeting and the outcome will give an indication of how RBI will look at interest rate and liquidity policy in the near future.