Trump’s Confession, US Jobs Data, And Inflation Among Other Market Cues to Impact Trade Next Week

The stock market opened the week on a strong footing, but failed to hold on to the gains. The excitement around the cuts in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates lifted sentiments initially, however, by the end of the week, concerns over global trade tensions dragged markets lower.

For the week, the Sensex advanced 900 points to close at 80,710.76 after briefly rising 1,646 points, while the Nifty 50 settled 314 points higher at 24,741.00, having surged as much as 554 points.

The broader markets witnessed a similar trend, as both the Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 participated in the early-week rally before paring gains in the latter half.

Performance across sectors were mixed. Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Investments, says: “The IT sector faced the sharpest pressure amid concerns of reduced discretionary spending, driven by economic uncertainty, elevated rates, and geopolitical risks. In contrast, consumer-focused sectors, such as auto and FMCG advanced, supported by expectations that GST cuts will boost domestic consumption and aid demand recovery.”

Key Market Cues Next Week

Trump’s Confession

On September 5, US President Donald Trump shared a social media post suggesting weakened prospects of a trade deal with India. Accompanied by a photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump wrote: "Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!"

This comes after the conclusion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin, China, which saw Modi, Jinping, and Putin coming together amid increasing tariff pressure by the US.

This shows that a trade deal between India and the US is unlikely to happen anytime soon, ending hopes of tariff relief for Indian exporters, which could weigh on investor sentiment.

US Jobs Data

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the world’s largest economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, much lower than the expected 75,000, showing the job market is slowing. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3 per cent. Health care and social assistance added jobs, but losses in government, mining, and manufacturing pulled the numbers down. Wages rose 0.3 per cent from July and 3.7 per cent over the past year.

Inflation Numbers

India and the US will release their respective inflation numbers for August next week. In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the core consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation, which excludes the often volatile energy and food prices, on September 11, 2025.

In India, the National Statistical Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will release CPI inflation numbers on September 12.

Japan Q2 GDP

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) under Japan’s Cabinet Office will release the second preliminary estimate of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the April–June (Q2) quarter on September 8, 2025. Market participants will be watching the data closely for signs of US tariff’s impact on one of the Asia’s biggest economies.

ECB Interest Rate Decision

The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates on September 11. In its last meeting in July, the ECB kept the rates unchanged, ending the rate-cutting cycle after eight reductions over the past year.

OPEC+ Meeting

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on September 7, and according to a Reuters report, the group is likely to consider increasing oil production in October to regain market share.

The alliance has already reversed its earlier output-cut strategy from April, raising production quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day, roughly 2.4 per cent of global demand, partly due to pressure from Trump to lower oil prices, the report added.

Following these developments, crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive session on September 5. Brent Crude November futures fell 5.26 per cent to $65.50 per barrel over the three days, while WTI Crude October futures fell 5.67 per cent to $61.87 per barrel.

Market participants will be closely tracking oil prices to see if they fall further if OPEC+ decides to increase supply.