Market Cues This Week: Trump’s Call To NATO, US Fed Rate Cut, India-US Trade Talks Among Other Factors To Guide D-Street

Domestic equities edged higher during the previous week, with benchmark indices gaining more than a per cent each. During the week, the NSE Nifty 50 index gained 340.85 points, or 1.37 per cent, to end at 25,114.00. The BSE Sensex advanced 1,117.40 points, or 1.38 per cent to settle at 81,904.70.  

Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, Religare Broking said investors "continued to cheer the recently announced GST reforms," while upgrades to growth estimates and signs of firm domestic demand added to the positive mood. Optimism over the revival of India–US trade talks and softer US inflation, which strengthened bets of a US Federal Reserve rate cut, also fuelled the rally, he added.

Market Cues This Week

A host of geopolitical developments and macro data releases are expected to guide trading on Dalal Street in the week ahead, from September 15-19.

Trump Calls On NATO To Stop Buying Russian Oil

US President Donald Trump on Saturday called on NATO countries to impose 50-100 per cent tariffs on China and stop buying oil from Russia. NATO, or North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a political and military alliance of 32 countries from North America and Europe.

Sharing a letter on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump wrote: “I am ready to do major sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. The purchase of Russian oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia.”

Though Trump didn't mention India in his letter, it holds great significance to India. For months, Trump has been pressuring New Delhi into giving up buying Russian oil, and India has defended its stance by arguing that European nations also buy discounted oil from Moscow, exposing what it calls the West’s double standards.

India-US Trade Talks

India and the US are in talks to finalise the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement by November 2025, with both sides saying the progress has been positive. The negotiations come amid tensions over US tariffs on Indian goods and Washington’s push for greater market access, particularly in agriculture and dairy.

Market participants will be closely tracking this space for any further updates.     

India-EU Free Trade Agreement

India and the European Union are aiming for an early conclusion of a free trade agreement, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on September 13.

"As the India-EU FTA negotiations continue, we reiterated our shared commitment towards its early conclusion. A balanced and mutually beneficial FTA will unlock new opportunities for people and businesses on both sides,” Goyal posted on X.

US Fed Rate Cut

The US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting panel Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting on September 16-17 to decide on interest rates. Markets are betting high that the Fed will announce a rate cut at the meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 94.50 per cent probability of a 25 basis-point (bps) cut, and about a 7.50 per cent chance of a 50 bps reduction.

Inflation Rises To 2.07%

India’s retail inflation inched up to 2.07 per cent in August after nine straight months of decline, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed on September 12. This is still within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI’s) 2–6 per cent band and below its 4 per cent target.

The National Statistics Office, under MoSPI, will also release the India Wholesale Price (WPI)-based inflation.