Rice Stocks Under Pressure After Trump’s New Tariff Threat: Will It Hit Exporters’ Earnings?

Shares of rice exporters came under pressure on December 9 after US President Donald Trump hinted that his administration could look at fresh tariffs on rice imports from India.

Among major listed players, KRBL was the worst hit, with its shares falling up to 10 per cent in early trade. LT Foods tumbled nearly 8 per cent, GRM Overseas plunged up to 5.55 per cent, and Chaman Lal Exports slipped up to 2.60 per cent.

However, most of these stocks recovered early morning losses as the session progressed.

The decline came after Trump indicated that Indian rice exports could face new tariffs as part of a broader push to protect American farmers. He made the statement while announcing a $12‑billion aid package for US farmers, saying that cheaper imports were hurting domestic producers.

“They shouldn’t be dumping,” Trump said in reference to India’s rice exports. “I mean, I heard that, I heard that from others. You can’t do that,” he added.

Which Rice Exporters Are Most Exposed To The US?

Of all the listed Indian rice exporters, LT Foods Ltd seems most exposed if the US goes ahead with new tariffs. According to its FY24 financial disclosures, about 38.5 per cent of consolidated revenue came from North America.

KRBL Ltd looks less vulnerable on this front. In FY24, only around 10 per cent of its basmati export revenue came from North America, according to the company's FY24 annual report.

Chaman Lal Setia Exports earns around 80-90 per cent of its revenue from overseas markets, but its FY24 filings do not specify how much comes from the US or North America.

AWL Agri Business reported a total revenue of Rs 63,672 crore in FY25, of which its Food & FMCG vertical, which includes staples such as rice under the Fortune and Kohinoor brands contributed Rs 6,272.74 crore, according to the company’s FY25 disclosure.

GRM Overseas exports rice to more than 40 countries, including the US, and reported Rs 1,374.2 crore in revenue for FY25. However, the company’s filings do not disclose how much of this comes from the US.

Will It Have Any Material Impact On Exporter’s Earnings

Manasvi Garg, a Securities and Exchange Board of India-registered investment advisor (Sebi RIA), CFA, and founder and CEO of Moneyvesta, said the impact of potential US tariffs on Indian rice exporters is likely to be limited. He said that US demand for Indian rice is relatively small, with exports to the US amounting to about $337 million of basmati and $55 million of non-basmati rice in FY25, roughly 3-5 per cent of India’s total rice shipments.

“Moreover, the US already imposes very high duties, roughly 50 per cent on Indian rice. In other words, US importers and consumers have already been absorbing most of the duty hit, and new tariffs would scarcely dent Indian export volumes and instead raise prices for American consumers,” Garg said. He added that Indian rice exporters have a well-diversified global footprint, with the US accounting for only a small slice of their business.

In the short term, according to Garg, stocks have clearly reacted to headline risk. "Traders offloaded rice stocks on uncertainty, contributing to a modest overall market drag. However, once the initial scare passes, valuation and profit fundamentals should reassert themselves. India’s consumption-driven economy and these companies’ core businesses remain unchanged and much of the selloff reflects noise - investors spooked by headlines rather than a realistic earnings shock. Until concrete policy is announced, we should treat any further dips as tactical volatility."