Stock Market This Week: India-US Trade Talks, Q1 Earnings Among Other Macro Trends To Watch

The stock market was under pressure the previous week as uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s trade policies ahead of the July 9 deadline weighed on investor sentiment. However, the progressive talks between India and the US helped limit the downside.

The Nifty 50 shed 176.8 points, or 0.69 per cent during the week to close at 25,461. Similarly, the Sensex lost 626 points, or 0.74 per cent to end the week at 83,432.89.

However, the broader market indices advanced, albeit marginally. The Nifty Smallcap 100 index climbed 0.30 per cent, and the Nifty Midcap 100 surged nearly 0.50 per cent. The Nifty 500 index, which represents more than 92 per cent of the free-float market cap of all the stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), slipped 0.24 per cent.

IT and healthcare stocks outperformed the broader market, supported by defensive positioning and select stock-specific triggers, according to Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking. On the other hand, he added, rate-sensitive sectors like realty, banking, and auto came under pressure amid profit booking, while FMCG stocks also ended lower.

Key Macro Trends To Watch This Week

India-US Trade Talks: The 90-day pause of Trump tariffs ends on July 9, after which Indian exports may face an additional 26 per cent duty. An Indian delegation recently returned from Washington after holding talks on an interim trade deal with the US, as per a PTI report.

While some progress was made, key issues, especially high duties on auto, steel, and aluminium exports, still remain unresolved. Discussions are expected to continue.

BRICS Summit: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in Rio de Janeiro for a four-day visit to Brazil, where he will attend the BRICS Summit from July 6 to July 7.Before arriving in Brazil, Modi met Argentine President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires. The two leaders agreed to strengthen trade ties and explore deeper cooperation in defence, energy, critical minerals, and pharmaceuticals, sectors that investors will closely watch.

OPEC+ Announces August Output Hike: OPEC+ on July 5 announced that it will raise oil production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, slightly more than the previous monthly hikes of 411,000 bpd. This is expected to soften crude oil prices. Since India is a major oil importer, hence any moderation in crude oil prices is expected to bode well for investor sentiment.

Brent Crude September Futures contract slipped 0.73 per cent on July 4 to settle at $68.30 per barrel. Similarly, the WTI Crude August Futures contract declined 0.76 per cent to close at $66.49 per barrel. Both the contracts have been range-bound since Iran-Israel tensions eased. During the conflict, oil prices jumped more than 15 per cent.

Q1 Earnings Season Begins: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is set to report its first quarter (Q1) results for the current fiscal year (FY26), marking the beginning of the Q1 earnings season.

Investors will react to the results companies will post this week.