Stock Market News: Top Triggers That Could Shape D-Street Action This Week

The domestic stock market ended the week on a positive note amid easing Iran-Israel tensions, falling crude oil prices, and renewed buying by foreign investors in the second half of the week. The Sensex recovered 3.20 per cent or 2,582 points from the week’s low to close at 84,058.90, while the Nifty 50 bounced back 3.30 per cent or 813 points to end at 25,637.80.

Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, Religare Broking, said the market’s gains were largely driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and a strong comeback in foreign inflows. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped calm nerves, while on the domestic front, better progress in the monsoon, softer crude prices, and stable economic indicators added to the positive sentiment, he said.

The broader market indices too reflected the positive sentiment. The Nifty Midcap 100 gained 2.40 per cent, the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 4.30 per cent, the Nifty 500 climbed 2.50 per cent and the Nifty Microcap 250 advanced 3.20 per cent during the week.

Stock Market Next Week

Looking ahead, the coming week is lined up with several important global and domestic events. All eyes will be on the US trade developments, key economic data, and global market cues that could guide the market’s direction in the days to come.

US Trade Deals

The US has been in talks with around 18 trading partners, including India, Japan, several European countries, and some Southeast Asian nations. These countries are looking to avoid steep global tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump in April this year. While those tariffs were put on hold for 90 days, the pause is set to end on July 8. However, US officials this week hinted that the deadline could be extended to allow more time for negotiations.

Meanwhile, China has issued a stern warning against any trade deals between the US and other countries that could hurt its interests. In a statement late Saturday, the Commerce Ministry said it won’t accept any such agreements and will take firm action to protect its rights if needed.

India IIP Data

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) is scheduled to release the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for May 2025 on June 30. In April, IIP growth came in at 2.70 per cent, easing from 3 per cent (Quick Estimate) recorded in March, according to official data. Markets will be watching the May print closely for signs of momentum in industrial activity.

India Monthly Automobile Data

The automobile industry players in India are set to release their monthly sales data on July 1. Earlier in May, the domestic auto industry had posted mixed numbers. Total production rose 5.20 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to 2.58 million units, up from 2.45 million units in May last year.

Passenger vehicle sales inched up by 0.80 per cent, while two-wheeler sales saw a healthy 7.30 per cent rise. However, on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, passenger vehicle retail sales dipped slightly by 0.80 per cent.

US Manufacturing PMI And Other Macroeconomic Data Releases

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing PMI data for the month of June 2025 on July 1. In May, the index slipped to 48.50, down from 48.70 in April, suggesting shrinking factory activity. A reading above 50 signals growth, while anything below points to a slowdown in activity.

Investors will also be keeping a close watch on a bunch of key US data releases through the week, including the ADP jobs report on July 2, and non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and services PMI on July 3, 2025, all of which could provide fresh clues about the strength of the US economy.