Stock Market Today: US Government Shutdown, Powell's Speech, Crude Oil Oversupply, Among Other Global Cues To Watch

After a brief rebound last week, benchmark indices appear to have entered a consolidation phase. The gains from the first two sessions of the week, on October 12 and 13, were completely wiped out in October 14’s trade, as markets turned cautious amid mixed global cues.

At close, the BSE Sensex was down 297.07 points, or 0.36 per cent, at 82,029.98, and the NSE Nifty 50 was down 81.85 points, or 0.32 per cent, at 25,145.50.

In today’s session, October 15, markets are likely to react to several domestic and global cues including United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation data among others.

Key Market Cues To Watch Today

US Government Shutdown

The US government shutdown entered its 15^th day on October 15, with no resolution in sight. The US government entered a partial shutdown as the Congress failed to agree on a new spending bill. The deadlock between Democrats and Republicans over budget priorities has stopped funding for several federal agencies, delaying key data releases and creating fresh uncertainty for markets.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was supposed to release the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation data for September 2025 of the world’s largest economy today. However, due to the shutdown, the US BLS has re-scheduled the CPI inflation data release on October 24, 2025.

Powell’s Speech

Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Philadelphia, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on October 14 said the US economy “may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected,” but signaled a cautious approach to further rate cuts.

Powell noted a disconnect between weak job growth and resilient consumer spending, saying, “You do have a bit of tension between labor market data — we see very low levels of job creation — and yet people are spending.”

He added that policymakers will proceed “meeting-by-meeting” as they weigh soft labor conditions against still-elevated inflation. While the ongoing government shutdown has disrupted access to official data, Powell said the Fed currently has “adequate insight” to make policy decisions ahead of its October 28–29 meeting.

India-US Trade Deal

India is accelerating trade talks with the US, with the aim to conclude negotiations by November, Bloomberg reported earlier today.

According to people familiar with the matter, as told to Bloomberg, India is working on a mutually acceptable plan to resolve outstanding issues, while most other trade matters between the two countries have already been settled.

An Indian delegation is in the US this week to push discussions forward, and officials in India are cautiously optimistic about the renewed momentum, the report added.

Asian Stock Markets

Asian markets bounced back in early trade today after witnessing a three-day losing streak, as hopes of an upcoming US Federal Reserve rate cut improved investor confidence, offsetting concerns over renewed tensions between the US and China.

In the early session, Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.30 per cent, South Korea's Kospi zoomed over 2 per cent, the Hong Kong-based Hang Seng rose 1.25 per cent, while China's CSI 300 traded flat-to-negative.

US Stock Market

Overnight, US stock market's main indices ended on a mixed note as investors weighed upbeat earnings from major banks, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and lingering concerns over the US-China trade tensions.

The Dow Jones closed higher by 0.44 per cent, while the S&P 500 index ended 0.16 per cent down, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, too, settled lower, down 0.76 per cent.

Crude Oil Oversupply Concerns

Crude oil prices continued to tumble on oversupply concerns and the ongoing US-China trade tensions, hovering around their five-month lows.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on October 14 that the global oil market could face a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels, higher than previously expected. The agency attributed rising production, particularly from OPEC countries, and weak demand as the key reasons behind the anticipated oversupply.

Weak inflation data from China, the world's largest importer, added to the pressure. China’s CPI Inflation fell 0.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in September 2025, after a 0.4 per cent drop in August 2025, while on a monthly basis, CPI rose just 0.1 per cent, below the expected 0.2 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Brent crude oil futures slipped 0.35 per cent to trade at $62.17 per barrel. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also traded lower by 0.26 per cent to $58.55 per barrel.

Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have declined more than 11 per cent.

Gold And Silver Price Today

Gold prices continued to gain in early trade today amid the ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) traded 0.55 per cent higher at Rs 1,26,950 per 10 grams. During the session so far, it touched a new record high of Rs 1,27,500 per 10 grams.

MCX Silver futures was up by 0.66 per cent at Rs 1,60,566 per 1 kg.

USD vs INR

The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened in early trade today, supported by optimism over a potential US-India trade agreement.

The INR rose nearly 0.90 per cent to 87.96 per US dollar (USD), its largest gain in almost four months.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index futures, which compares the greenback with six major currencies, traded at 98.64, down 0.17 per cent, extending its previous day’s decline.