Gold Rises As Traders Await Key US Jobs Data For Fed Clues

Gold prices gained in early trade on September 5, 2025 ahead of the key US jobs data due later today. Traders are waiting to see if the report gives any hint on Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), October gold futures rose Rs 633, or 0.59 per cent, to Rs 1,07,050 per 10 grams. During the session, the contract climbed as much as Rs 1,07,151, close to its record high of Rs 1,07,226 per 10 grams.

Globally, on Comex, December gold futures advanced by $10.4, or 0.29 per cent, to $3,617 per ounce.  

How US Jobs Data Affect Gold Prices

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Non-Farm Payrolls report on the first Friday of each month, usually at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (6:00 PM Indian Standard Time). This report gives a wider picture of job growth in the world’s largest economy and is a key deciding factor for Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Prathamesh Mallya, deputy vice president, non-agri commodities and currencies at Angel One, said strong employment data typically leads the US central bank to raise interest rates, while weaker numbers increase the likelihood of a cut.

"The official US jobs report is expected to show a fourth straight month of subdued payroll growth. If the data come in weaker than anticipated, it may boost the case for deeper Fed rate cuts in the coming months," said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities.

“Interest rates and gold share an inverse correlation,” Mallya explained, adding, “a rise in interest rates causes gold prices to fall, while a fall in interest rates pushes gold prices higher.”

"A weaker-than-expected print could raise the odds of a 50 bps Fed rate cut in September, putting pressure on the US Dollar. Since gold and the dollar often move inversely—as competing global reserve assets—a softer dollar would be supportive for gold prices, while stronger data could weigh on them," said Anindya Banerjee, Head Currency and Commodity Research, Kotak Securities.

Beyond today’s release, the September 9 revision to previous payroll figures will also be critical, with growing expectations of meaningful downward adjustments that could further reinforce the case for rate cuts, Banerjee added.

What Other Factors Are Affecting Gold Prices Today

Gold prices have been shining in anticipation that the US Fed might cut the rates at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17.

Moreover, the US tariff policies are creating an environment of uncertainty in global trade, which is also impacting gold prices in the near term, Mallya said.

Chainwala added, “Safe haven bids remain elevated as Trump is appealing to the Supreme Court to uphold his import tariffs, while Russia-Ukraine tensions run high.”

Banerjee said, "Keep an eye on USDINR as well. A weaker Rupee amplifies returns on gold for domestic investors, adding an additional layer of support to local prices. In addition, trade-related remarks from the Trump administration could sway market sentiment and influence gold’s trajectory."