Stock Market Cues To Watch Next Week: Crude, US Yields, Jobs Data In Focus

Equities ended lower for the seventh straight week, as higher crude oil prices, rising US bond yields and geopolitical tensions kept investors cautious. The Sensex fell 0.54 per cent during the week to 73,895.74, while the Nifty declined 0.88 per cent to 23,140.50.

The sell-off intensified on September 24, 2026, before a modest recovery a day later. The broader markets also remained under pressure.

Stock Market Cues To Track Next Week

Here are the key cues investors will track from September 28-October 1, 2026. Both the NSE and the BSE will remain closed on October 2 on the occasion of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.

US-Iran War, Crude Oil

Crude oil prices will remain the biggest near-term trigger for Indian equities. Iran has proposed a seven-day roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while reports said that US President Donald Trump had rejected the proposal. Any progress towards reopening the key oil shipping route could ease crude prices, while renewed tensions could push them higher.

Higher oil prices can widen India’s import bill, add to inflationary pressures and weigh on the rupee. They also raise input costs for industries that rely heavily on fuel.

US Treasury Yields

US Treasury yields will remain in focus after the 10-year yield crossed 5.22 per cent and the 30-year yield rose to around 5.53 per cent, their highest levels in years.

Higher US yields can increase the appeal of dollar assets and put pressure on emerging-market currencies and equities. Investors will watch whether yields extend their rise, particularly after stronger US economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

India IIP Data

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release India’s August Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data on September 28. Industrial output grew 6.70 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in July, with manufacturing output rising 7.30 per cent. The August reading will provide a fresh indication of the strength of domestic industrial activity.

Government Accounts, External Debt

The Centre’s August fiscal accounts are due on September 30, with the data to be released by the Controller General of Accounts. Investors will track tax collections, expenditure, and the fiscal deficit after the first four months of 2026-27.

India’s external debt data is also due around the same time, to be released by the Department of Economic Affairs. The figures will be watched against the backdrop of elevated global borrowing costs and pressure on the rupee.

India Manufacturing PMI

The HSBC India Manufacturing purchasing manufacturing index (PMI) for September will be released on October 1. The flash reading rose to 55.70 from 52.80 in August, pointing to a stronger pace of expansion.

The final reading will provide more detail on new orders, output, employment and input costs. Investors will watch whether higher commodity prices are beginning to affect manufacturers’ cost pressures.

US Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management will release the US September Manufacturing PMI on October 1. The indicator will offer a fresh reading on factory activity, new orders, production, and employment in the US. A stronger reading would suggest continued economic resilience, while a weaker number could revive concerns over growth.

Automobile Sales Data

Indian automobile companies will start releasing their September sales numbers from October 1. These monthly figures will provide an early read on demand across passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, and commercial vehicles. Automakers publish their own wholesale numbers, while the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) compiles industry-level data, while the Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (Fada) tracks retail registrations.

US Jobs Data

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Employment Situation report on October 2. The report will include non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth in the US. The August report showed payrolls rising by 162,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.10 per cent. The September data will be closely watched for clues on the strength of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

India Forex Reserves

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will release the weekly foreign exchange reserves data on October 2. India’s reserves stood at $765.90 billion for the week ended September 18. The latest reading will be watched alongside crude prices and the rupee, particularly, as higher oil prices could increase India’s dollar demand.