Stock Market This Week: RBI MPC Meet, US-Iran War, PMI data, GDP, Inflation And Other Cues To Watch

Stock Market This Week: The previous week proved to be a volatile one for the equity markets, with benchmark indices extending their losing streak for a sixth straight week. Trading activity was limited to three sessions only, as the exchanges observed a holiday on March 31 for Mahavir Jayanti, and on April 3 for Good Friday.

Equities began the week on a weak footing, opening with a sharp gap-down after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend. The geopolitical tensions triggered a spike in crude oil prices, which in turn weighed on investor sentiment and raised concerns over inflationary pressures.

However, equities witnessed a sharp mid-week recovery, led by IT and metal stocks, as investors engaged in bargain buying, and the rupee recovered after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention.

On a weekly basis, the BSE Sensex declined 0.36 per cent to end at 73,319.55, while the NSE Nifty slipped 0.46 per cent to settle at 22,713.10.

The coming week, from April 6-10, will be guided by the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) announcements, the ongoing US-Iran war, and macroeconomic figures like gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation data, and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.

Stock Market Cues This Week

Here are the key stock market cues to watch this week.

RBI MPC Meeting

The RBI's six-member MPC will hold its first meeting of the new financial year, and after the US-Iran war began. The meeting is scheduled to start on April 6 and conclude on April 8, after which the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the committee's decisions. Investors will be keenly watching for guidance on interest rates, and how the ongoing US-Iran war will impact the inflation outlook.

India’s PMI Data

India’s manufacturing activity slowed in March 2026, slipping to its weakest pace of expansion since mid-2022 and hitting a 45-month low. Data released by S&P Global on April 2, after market hours, showed that the India Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.9 in March from 56.9 in February.

While the index remained above the 50-mark, indicating continued expansion, the decline signified a slowdown in factory activity. Higher input costs, including fuels, metals and other raw materials, weighed on production and squeezed margins, thereby limiting the pace of growth in the sector.

US Macroeconomic Data

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the third estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 on April 9. This will be followed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releasing the CPI inflation data for March on April 10, a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory.

US-Iran War

US President Donald Trump has warned that “all hell would rain down on” Iran if it failed to strike a deal, a threat that Tehran dismissed and responded with equally strong language.

Over the weekend, the situation deteriorated further as Iran launched missiles towards the Gulf region, Iraq and Israel, with additional strikes reported across Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE. The downing of a US F-15 fighter jet over Iran has added another layer of dynamics to the conflict.

Investors will be watching for further updates on the US-Iran war over the week to gauge the overall sentiment of the market.

Crude Oil Price

The international benchmark Brent crude oil futures last traded at $109 per barrel, and the US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $112 a barrel. The recent exchange of threats over the weekend is likely to spike crude oil prices again as trading resumes on April 6.