Gold Prices Fall After Iran-Israel Ceasefire Eases Tensions: Good Time To Buy? Here's What Expert Say

Gold prices slipped on Tuesday, June 24 as US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing fears of further conflict in the region.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures slipped nearly 3 per cent during the day to hit an intraday low of Rs 96,422 per 10 grams.

In the international market, COMEX Gold futures declined as much as 1.9 per cent to hit an intraday low of $3,330.7 an ounce.

The sudden de-escalation reduced demand for gold, which typically benefits during times of geopolitical uncertainty. However, the situation in the region is still volatile as fresh reports of both Iran and Israel exchanging fire despite the ceasefire being in place led to a brief recovery in gold rates later in the session.

Around 4:45 PM, the MCX Gold was trading at Rs 97,385, down by 2.02 per cent or Rs 2,003. Around the same time, COMEX Gold was trading at $3,340.4 per ounce, down by $54.6 or 1.6 per cent.

Gold Price Fall: Should Investors Buy The Dip

Kaynat Chainwala, AVP – Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said that geopolitical tensions have been a key driver of gold’s rally in 2024, significantly inflating its risk premium. “With concerns about a broader regional conflict now easing, gold may continue to face downward pressure in the near term, particularly as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, suggesting the next rate cut may not come before September,” said Chainwala.

“For now, the market is expected to remain cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony set for today. Investors will be watching closely for any shift in tone following his recent warning that tariff-related price pressures could persist,” she said.

Powell is set to appear before the House Financial Services Committee today and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, June 25 as part of his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.

Chainwala noted that although the White House and President Trump has been pushing for rate cuts, if Powell maintains a “wait-and-watch” stance, gold prices could remain subdued. However, any indication of a dovish pivot could offer short-term support to prices, she added.

Gold Price Outlook

Jateen Trivedi, VP – Commodity and Currency Research at LKP Securities, believes gold is likely to remain volatile in the short term as market direction hinges on geopolitical developments and broader risk sentiment.

Chainwala sees MCX gold potentially drifting lower toward Rs 95,500 in the short term, due to easing geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance.

However, she cautions that gold remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and any escalation, such as fresh ceasefire violations, could trigger a brief recovery in prices.

Looking ahead, she maintains a constructive medium-term outlook for gold, supported by ongoing central bank buying and concerns over the broader economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. According to her, MCX gold could rally toward Rs 1,04,000 over the medium term, while Rs 92,120 is expected to act as a key support level.