Bitcoin Weekly: Can Bitcoin Hold Its Recovery Amid Rising Treasury Yields?

Bitcoin’s recent recovery has come under pressure after the cryptocurrency climbed above $86,000 before falling back below $84,000. Rising US Treasury yields and stronger economic activity have renewed concerns about tighter monetary policy, thus creating a fresh test for the recovery.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $83,337.76 on September 29, 2026, up 0.30 per cent on the day, but down 3.99 per cent over the week.

Why Is Bitcoin Facing Fresh Pressure?

According to the latest weekly report from Binance Research, the rise in Treasury yields has become an important risk for Bitcoin. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.17 per cent, its highest level since 2007, while expectations of an October rate hike moved towards 70 per cent.

The report noted that Brent crude crossed $103 a barrel on September 23 and US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data reached a 62-month high. These developments have added to expectations of tighter monetary policy and ha e contributed to Bitcoin’s pullback towards $84,000.

However, demand has remained supportive. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $999 million in inflows on September 21, their largest single-day inflow of 2026 and the biggest since October 6, 2025.

Bitcoin ETF flows had reached $5.69 billion in cumulative net outflows on July 13 before recovering. Binance Research said continued inflows could strengthen the case for a more durable recovery, particularly as demand has remained positive despite higher bond yields.

Can Bitcoin’s Recovery Hold?

Bitcoin has also improved on the technical front. Its weekly close at $81,159 on September 20 was the first close above the 50-week moving average since November 9, 2025. Binance Research said holding this level during future pullbacks would strengthen the trend-reversal case, while a close below it would weaken the signal.

Binance Research looked at 12 previous instances in which the 50-day average had remained below the 200-day average for at least 150 days. These episodes were associated with peak gains of roughly 100-600 per cent over the following year. However, the report noted that these were peak gains rather than 12-month returns, while the small and overlapping sample limits their predictive value.

Going ahead, US inflation and employment data could determine whether Bitcoin’s recovery can hold, while higher inflation, stronger payrolls or an upward gross domestic product (GDP) revision could increase expectations of tighter monetary policy. For now, Bitcoin’s recovery remains dependent on whether renewed demand can offset pressure from higher Treasury yields.