India-EU Trade Negotiations, US Fed Meet, IMF India GDP Projection Among Top Market Cues To Watch Next Week

Last week, domestic benchmark indices erased all early-week gains, closing largely flat by the end of the holiday-shortened week. At close on October 24, Sensex was at 84,211.88, down 344.52 points, or 0.41 per cent, and Nifty 50 was at 25,795.15, down 96.25 points, or 0.37 per cent.

The week also saw crude oil prices rising sharply after the United States (US) and European Union (EU) imposed fresh sanctions on Russian oil majors. During the week, both the benchmarks, Brent crude oil futures and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, rose more than 7.5 per cent.

Precious metals, gold and silver, took a breather after a solid run during the month. Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) slipped nearly 7 per cent during the week, and silver futures tumbled around 13.50 per cent.

The week ahead, from October 27 to 31, is expected to be guided by key developments over the weekend and several macroeconomic data releases scheduled during the week.

India-EU Trade Negotiations

A seven-member European Union (EU) trade delegation will visit India next week to push for a long-awaited bilateral free trade agreement (FTA), according to a PTI report. The EU Committee on International Trade delegation will be in India from October 27 to 29 to discuss trade, economic, and investment ties. It will be led by Cristina Maestre, the committee’s standing rapporteur for India, and Brando Benifei, a member of the European Parliament.

India-US Trade Deal

Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal said on October 24 that India will not rush into trade deals and will protect its interests, even amid assertions from a senior official that India and the US are “very close” to finalising a bilateral trade agreement, as reported by Bloomberg.

Goyal had earlier said on October 23 that talks with the US are progressing and expressed hope that both sides will reach a fair and balanced deal soon.

IMF Projects India’s Economy To Grow 6.6% In FY26 Despite US Tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s economy to grow 6.6 per cent in FY26, raising its projections from earlier 6.4 per cent, and keeping the country among the fastest-growing emerging markets, according to its World Economic Outlook report. The upward revision is attributed to stronger-than-expected first-quarter performance, which has offset the impact of higher US tariffs on Indian goods. However, the IMF projects India’s growth to moderate to 6.2 per cent in FY27. Globally, the IMF sees growth at 3.2 per cent in FY26, slowing to 3.1 per cent in FY27.

Q2 Earnings

Market participants will be reacting to a host of Q2 earnings report over the weekend and during the coming week. Among the major companies are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, PNB Housing, Raymond, Adani Energy Solutions, Adani Green, Tata Capital, Hindustan Petroleum, RailTel Corporation, Varun Beverages, Canara Bank, Cipla, Dabur, DLF, Hyundai, ITC, NTPC, Union Bank of India, Swiggy, Maruti Suzuki India, among others.

Russia-Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, said Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv are “reasonably close” to a diplomatic deal to end the war in Ukraine. His comments come amid rising tensions between the US and Russia over new US sanctions on Moscow’s oil sector.

US Federal Reserve Meeting

The US Federal Reserve is set to meet on October 28-29 to decide on the trajectory of key interest rates in the world’s largest economy. Currently, the interest rates are in the range of 4.00-4.25 per cent.

Most market participants expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 98.3 per cent chance of this happening.

US Core CPI Comes Below Expectations

US core consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation rose less-than-expected in September 2025, giving the US Federal Reserve some breathing space ahead of its October 28-29 policy meeting. Data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showed that core CPI, which excludes the often volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2 per cent for the month and 3 per cent over the year. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected slightly higher numbers at 0.3 per cent and 3.1 per cent.

US Flash PMI Data

US business activity grew at a faster pace in October, according to the S&P Global US Flash PMI survey. The Composite PMI rose to 54.8 from 53.9 in September, the highest level in three months.

Growth was seen in both manufacturing and services. The Services PMI increased to 55.2, while the Manufacturing PMI inched up to 52.2. However, export demand fell, and factories reported weaker backlogs and higher inventories.

Job growth improved slightly but stayed modest, especially in the manufacturing sector. Business confidence weakened due to concerns about tariffs, though lower interest rates offered some support. Price increases slowed to the weakest pace since April, but companies continued to face higher costs from wages and tariffs.