Market Cues This Week: Trump’s Tariff On China, Inflation Data, Among Other Factors To Watch

Domestic equities extended its recovery rally to the second consecutive week, with the benchmark indices gaining over one and a half per cent.

At close on October 10, the BSE Sensex was at 82,500.82, up 0.40 per cent, or 328.72 points, from previous close. Likewise, the NSE Nifty 50 was at 25,285.35, up 0.41 per cent, or 103.55 points.

The recovery rally came after the World Bank revised India’s FY26 gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate up to 6.5 per cent from 6.3 per cent earlier, citing strong domestic demand and steady policy support. The markets also took comfort from easing geopolitical tensions in the West Asia as Israel and Hamas agreed to first-phase ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal, and positive sentiments following a review of the India-US trade deal between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump.

In the coming week, from October 13 to October 17, several macroeconomic data releases and ongoing geopolitical developments are likely to shape the direct of market. Here's a look at these.

Key Market Cues To Watch This Week

India Inflation Data September 2025

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for September on October 13. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data, published by the Office of the Economic Adviser, is expected on October 14. Market participants will be tracking these two macro figures for clues on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) future rate trajectory.

US CPI Inflation Data

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the monthly CPI inflation data of the world's largest economy on October 15. The US Federal Reserve has already delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut in its September meeting, bringing it down to 4.00 per cent to 4.25 per cent range. Two more rate cuts are expected by the end of this year.

As of October 11, 2025, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 98.30 per cent probability that the US Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point rate cut at its upcoming meeting on October 28–29. The CPI Inflation data for September 2025 will provide investors clues on whether the Fed will go ahead with rate cut or maintain status quo.

Trump’s Tariffs On China

Trump, on October 10, announced an additional 100 per cent tariff on China, on top of the existing 30 per cent tariffs, which is set to take effect on November 1 or earlier. The Trump administration also plans to impose export controls on critical software from American companies. According to Trump, these measures are in response to China’s new restrictions on rare earth elements.

US Stock Market

US stock markets saw a sharp fall on October 10 after Trump’s announcement of China tariff hike. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1.90 per cent, the S&P 500 plunged 2.71 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 3.56 per cent, one of the sharpest falls these key indices has seen in recent months.

Trump’s tariff hike on China came after Beijing imposed export controls on rare earth minerals, which are critical for the tech and defense industries, along with new port fees on American ships and an antitrust probe into Qualcomm.

Asian markets and domestic markets are likely to react on this developing taking cues from the Wall Street.