Stock Market Cues: Trump Iran Tariffs, US Fed, Inflation, Crude Oil Among Other Triggers To Watch Today

Stock Market Cues: In the session on January 13, market participants are likely to react to a host of global and domestic cues, including US President Donald Trump's fresh tariff threat, India's retail inflation numbers for December 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams' statement on US monetary policy, among other triggers.

In the previous session on January 12, the domestic equity benchmark indices snapped their five-day losing streak to end higher. After starting lower in early trade, both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 staged a sharp rebound, recovering early losses to close in the green.

At close, Sensex was at 83,878.17, up 301.93 points, or 0.36 per cent, and Nifty 50 was at 25,790.25, up 106.96 points, or 0.42 per cent.

Stock Market Cues To Watch On Jan 13

Following are the key market cues that are likely to influence trade on the D-Street on January 13:

Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Countries Trading With Iran

Trump announced a fresh round of global tariffs, saying countries that continue trade with Iran will face a 25 per cent tariff from the US. This is widely seen as an attempt to tighten pressure on Tehran over its handling of nationwide protests, which have reportedly left nearly 600 people dead. The development comes even as India is already subject to 50 per cent tariffs on its exports to the US.

India CPI Inflation December 2025

India’s consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation rose to 1.33 per cent in December 2025, government data released on January 12 showed. This marks the 11th consecutive month that inflation has remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target band of 2-4 per cent. CPI Inflation rose because of higher food prices and a waning base effect, the government release said. Inflation had stood at 0.71 per cent in November, its lowest level in over three years.

US Fed Policy Outlook

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on January 12 said that the US economy is expected to remain healthy this year and that there is no near-term need to cut interest rates. His comments suggest the Federal Reserve (Fed) is in no hurry to ease policy, even as inflation continues to cool.

Speaking at an event organised by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Williams said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy closer to neutral.”

He added that “monetary policy is now well positioned to support the stabilisation of the labour market and the return of inflation to the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 per cent.”

US Fed Chair Powell Under Criminal Investigation

The US attorney’s office in Washington has opened a criminal investigation into US Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The probe is linked to the $2.5 billion renovation of the US Fed’s headquarters and whether Powell gave misleading information to Congress.

This comes as a major escalation in President Trump’s pressure on Powell. Trump has repeatedly criticised the Fed chief for not cutting interest rates more aggressively. Powell said on January 11 that the US Department of Justice investigation is another attempt by the Trump administration to influence the central bank’s policy decisions.

The case has raised concerns about political interference and the weakening of the US Fed’s independence.

Crude Oil Prices Jump

Crude oil prices jumped in early trade on January 13 as investors grew nervous over the risk of supply disruptions, after fears resurfaced that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Trump’s threat of military action.

The escalation in tensions has put the crude market in jitters, given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for a large portion of the world’s oil supplies.

At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures traded 0.71 per cent higher at $59.74 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures was up 0.34 per cent at $64.09 per barrel.

US Stock Market

Wall Street's benchmark indices ended higher overnight, led by gains in Walmart, consumer staple and technology shares.

Walmart shares rose 3 per cent as the retail chain operator is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index on January 20. Its inclusion in the coveted index could attract billions of dollars from passive index funds.

At close, Dow Jones was up 0.17 per cent, S&P 500 was up 0.16 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was up by 0.26 per cent.

Asian Stock Market

Asian shares traded higher in early trade on January, led by Japan.

At the time of writing, Japan's Nikkei 225 traded up by 3.37 per cent, leading Asian trade. South Korea's Kospi was up 0.65 per cent, China's CSI 300 and SSE Composite traded near flat levels, while the Hong Kong-based Hang Seng traded higher by more than 1 per cent. Australia's ASX was also up by 0.76 per cent.

Gold and Silver Rate Today

Gold and Silver traded higher in early trade on January 13, driven by fears of crude oil supply risk concerns.

At the time of writing, Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was up by 0.12 per cent at Rs 1,42,206 per 10 grams. Silver futures on MCX traded higher by 0.81 per cent at Rs 2,71,150 per kilogram.

Rupee vs US Dollar

The rupee traded slightly weaker against the US dollar in early deals on January 13, tracking a firm dollar overseas.

The USD/INR pair was quoted at 90.18 around 10:22 AM, up 0.07 per cent from the previous close of 90.11. The pair opened marginally higher at 90.18 and moved in a narrow range of 90.12 to 90.25 during the session so far.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index futures, which compares the greenback against a basket of world's six major currencies, traded up by 0.09 per cent at 98.71.