India-US Trade Negotiations, Q4 Earnings, IIP Data, And Other Cues To Decide D-Street Action This Week

Stock Market News: Domestic markets concluded a turbulent week on a muted note, with investors treading cautiously amid global uncertainties. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold a net of Rs 4,850.05 crore worth of equities during the week. The benchmark indices lost around 0.7 per cent each over the week, and the overall market capitalisation of all BSE-listed shares eroded by nearly 1.7 lakh crore. However, a sharp rebound in the final session of the week offered some relief.

On May 23, the Sensex closed 769.09 points, or 0.95 per cent higher at 81,721.08, covering up nearly half of the weekly losses. Similarly, the Nifty 50 closed higher by 243.45 points, or 0.99 per cent at 24,853.15.

According to Ajit Mishra, SVP-Research at Religare Broking, rising US bond yields and mounting concerns over the US debt burden triggered FPI outflows, weighing on emerging markets like India. He said that speculation about progress in the US-China trade deal also raised fears of potential capital outflows or reduced inflows into Indian markets, adding to the negative sentiment. On the domestic front, Mishra said, mixed corporate earnings and delays in finalizing the India-US trade agreement added to the uncertainty, leading investors to book profits and adopt a cautious stance.

The week ahead, May 26 to May 30, is packed with a slew of domestic and global events that are likely to shape the direction of markets. These include:

India-US Trade Talks

Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, held a meeting with his United States (US) counterpart Howard Lutnick in Washington on May 23 to discuss the trade deal currently being worked out between India and the United States. Earlier on May 20, Goyal and Lutnick held meetings to push forward negotiations on the first phase of the deal.

According to a PTI report, India is pushing for lower import duties from the US on products from labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods, garments, plastics, chemicals, shrimp, oil seeds, grapes, and bananas.

In return, the US is seeking lower tariffs from India on products like industrial goods, electric vehicles, wines, petrochemical products, dairy, and farm produce including apples, tree nuts, and genetically modified (GM) crops.

Q4 GDP Growth Figures

The government will release the provisional GDP data for the fourth quarter and the full financial year 2024-25 on May 30. According to a report by the Union Bank of India, Q4 GDP growth is expected to come in at 7.0 per cent, showing an improvement from the 6.2 per cent seen in the third quarter (Q3).

NITI Aayog Chief Executive Officer (CEO) BVR Subrahmanyam said on May 25 that India’s economy has reached the $4 trillion mark, and with that India has now overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Addressing a press conference of the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting on ‘Viksit Rajya for Viksit Bharat 2047’, Subrahmanyam added, “It is a matter of another two to three years; we would become the third largest economy.”

Q4 Earnings Season Final Leg

The ongoing Q4 earnings season is almost on the brink. As many as 2,035 companies are slated to report their Q4 FY25 results during the week. Some of the prominent names include Bajaj Auto, Aurobindo Pharma, and IRCTC.

RBI’s Record Dividend Transfer To GOI

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, May 23, 2025, announced that it will transfer Rs 2.68 lakh crore to the Government of India (GOI) as dividend for the financial year 2024-25. This amount is part of the RBI’s annual profits and will help the government with its finances.

According to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI), the large surplus was mainly due to the high gross dollar sales, foreign exchange gains, and a consistent increase in interest income.

India’s Industrial And Manufacturing Production Data Release

India's industrial and manufacturing production data for April 2025 is scheduled to be released on May 28.

The country’s industrial production grew by 3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in March 2025, as per data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to 164.8 in March, up from 160.0 in March 2024.

Manufacturing, the largest component of the index, grew at 3 per cent, slightly up from 2.9 per cent in February. Electricity generation rose 6.3 per cent, up from 3.6 per cent growth recorded in February. Mining output, however, showed modest growth of 0.4 per cent, slowing down from 1.6 per cent in February.

US Bond Market

The recent rise in the yields of Treasury notes in the US has added to the volatility in global as well as Indian markets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note had surged as high as 4.62 per cent during the week, before settling at 4.50 per cent on May 23. Over the month, it surged 34 basis points (bps). From April lows of 3.86 per cent it has surged 64 bps.

The longer 30-year Treasury yields surpassed the 5 per cent mark during the previous week. It had surged as high as 5.10 per cent over the week before easing to 5.03 per cent on May 23. From April low of 4.32 per cent, it has seen a sharp rise of 71 bps.

When bond yields rise, borrowing costs increase, making stocks less attractive. This often leads to a drop in stock prices as investors move money from stocks to bonds.

FOMC Minutes Release

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to release the minutes of its next meeting on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. The FOMC meets eight times a year to decide on monetary policy, and the details of each meeting are shared about three weeks later.

The minutes give investors an insight into the US Federal Reserve’s view on the economy and interest rates.