Market Cues This Week: Trump-Putin 'No Deal', Tax Reforms, PMI Flash Survey And Other Macro Data Releases

Frontline indices ended the truncated week higher, snapping a six-week losing streak, as buying by domestic institutions lent support even as foreign investors continued to sell. The slight recovery came on the heels of softer July consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation in India and the United States (US). A fall in US 10-year bond yield, extension of trade truce between US and China, and falling oil prices also lent support.

At close on August 14, the Sensex was at 80,597.66, up 57.75 points, or 0.07 per cent from previous close. Likewise, the Nifty 50 also closed in the green at 24,631.30, up 11.95 points, or 0.05 per cent.

During the week, Sensex gained 739.87 points, or 0.93 per cent, while the Nifty 50 climbed 268 points, or 1.10 per cent.

India's CPI inflation eased to an 8-year low to 1.55 per cent year-on-year  (y-o-y) in July 2025, the lowest reading since June 2017. US CPI inflation rose 2.7 per cent y-o-y, while the core CPI inflation, which strips off the often more volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.1 per cent y-o-y.

Both countries' inflation came in below estimates, which raised hopes of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the US Federal Reserve, in their respective upcoming monetary policy meetings.

The US 10-year treasury yield slipped in early August before settling near 4.33 per cent by mid-month, suggesting some relief for emerging markets like India on the foreign inflows front.

The US and China agreed to extend their trade truce by another 90 days, which is being seen as a de-escalation in the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies. The extension pushed the truce deadline to November 10.

During the week, Brent Crude futures eased 1.11 per cent to $65.85 per barrel, while the WTI Crude futures slipped 1.7 per cent to $62.80 per barrel.

Key Global And Domestic Market Cues This Week

The week, from August 18 to 22, is packed with major geopolitical developments and several macroeconomic data releases, that are likely to decide the direction of market.

Trump-Putin' No Deal'

The much-awaited one-on-one meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded in Alaska, and no agreement was reached for a ceasefire in Ukraine. "There's no deal, until there's a deal," Trump said in his post-meeting remarks. He also added that Putin and he made "some great progress" without divulging much on the details. On the ceasefire, he said, "We didn't get there."

Beyond this, the two Presidents did not share many details. The question of whether Trump will impose new sanctions on Russia, after warning earlier that he would if Putin refused a ceasefire, also remained unanswered.

Market participants will be closely tracking this space for more details or announcements on this front.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

The US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hold an economic symposium every year. This year, the event will be held between August 21 and August 23, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers and central bankers from around the world will talk on this year's theme of "Labour Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy."

Market participants will be closely tracking for any signals on the Fed's rate outlook.

PM Modi's Independence Day Announcements

Tax Reforms: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his 12th Independence Day speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort, announced "next-generation" goods and services (GST) tax reforms by this Diwali, a move which is expected to boost domestic consumption. "The government will bring Next Generation GST reforms, which will bring down tax burden on the common man. It will be a Diwali gift for you," he said.

Indigenous Air Defence System: PM Modi also announced plans to set up a new air defence system, 'Sudarshan Chakra', by 2035. The system will be designed to neutralise enemy attacks and enhance the country's war-fighting capabilities. Defence stocks will be in focus when D-Street goes into trade on August 18.

US Tariff Counter: In the face of Trump's hard-hitting 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, PM Modi said, "Farmers, fishermen, cattle rearers are our top priorities," without mentioning the tariffs, Trump or the US in his speech.

He also said, "Modi will stand like a wall against any policy that threatens their interests. India will never compromise when it comes to protecting the interests of our farmers."

India PMI Flash Survey

The HSBC Flash India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by the S&P Global, will release on August 21, which will provide insights about how the country's economy is performing. The PMI flash survey serves as an early indicator of gross domestic product (GDP) growth momentum and a lead signal of the RBI's next policy stance.

Following the flash PMI survey, the HSBC Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Services PMI will be released next month on September 1 and September 3, respectively.

US Macroeconomic Numbers

Market participants will also be tracking US macroeconomic numbers such as core retail sales, existing home sales, PMI flash survey, initial jobless claims, and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

"Surprises from these indicators could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's policy path and impact foreign fund flows into emerging markets," said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, Religare Broking.