Stock Market Cues To Watch This Week: RBI MPC Meet, Q4 Results, Trump Tariffs

The past week has been a tumultuous one for India’s equity market. Over the week, both the Sensex and the Nifty slipped 2.65 per cent and 2.62 per cent, respectively. 

The broader market also mirrored the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100, fell by as much as 2.6 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, during the week.

Most sectors ended the week in the red, with major losses seen in capital goods (5 per cent), IT (8 per cent), metal (7.2 per cent), realty (3.5 per cent), oil & gas (3.9 per cent), and auto (5.6 per cent). Other sectors lost between 1 per cent and 3 per cent. 

However, a few sectors saw gains, including Bank Nifty (+0.2 per cent), Telecom (+3 per cent), and FMCG (+0.4 per cent).

Within the Nifty, the biggest gainers were Tata Consumer (+8.4 per cent), IndusInd Bank (+5 per cent), and Trent (+4.6 per cent), while the biggest losers were Hindalco (11.4 per cent), HCL Tech (10.3 per cent), and Tata Motors (9.2 per cent).

Investors collectively lost Rs 9.66 lakh crore in wealth, as the total market capitalisation of all BSE-listed companies slipped to Rs 404.09 lakh crore from Rs 413.75 lakh crore a week ago.

Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, Religare Broking, said that the sharp sell-off in global markets, particularly in the US, and fresh concerns over potential tariffs on Pharma impacted sentiment negatively.

According to Bajaj Broking Research, investors are worried that aggressive trade policies by US might lead to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, eventually escalating into a full-scale trade war. This could disrupt global supply chains and slow economic growth, the firm added.

Key Events: April 7-12, 2025

The week ahead is packed with important domestic and global macroeconomic data releases. Here's a look at the key events to watch from April 7 to April 12.

RBI MPC Meet

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) will begin its two-day discussions this week on April 7, for the first policy decision of the new fiscal year FY26. The outcome, including the interest rate decision on April 9, will be a key market trigger that will decide the direction of the action on the D-Street.

March 2025 IIP Data

India's March 2025 Index of Industrial Production (IIP) report is expected to be released on April 11, 2025.

Normally, the IIP data comes out on the 12th of each month, but since April 12th falls on a Saturday, it will be released a day earlier, on April 11.

Q4 Earnings Season

The earning season for the January-March, 2025 period (Q4 FY25) is set to begin this week, with IT services giant Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) releasing its quarterly earnings on April 10, 2025. The company may also announce a final dividend for FY25 along with the results.

US Core CPI Inflation

The US core consumer price index (CPI) inflation data is set to release on April 10. If the US Core CPI inflation data comes in higher than expected, it could mean the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates aggressively to control inflation. 

This could make investors more cautious globally, leading them to withdraw money from emerging markets like India, which could result in a fall in stock prices.