Big Developers Crowd Delhi-NCR, Affordable Homes Remain Scarce

Delhi-NCR’s housing market is attracting some of the country’s largest developers, but the rush for land and market share is playing out almost entirely at the upper end. As more national brands enter or expand in the region, competition is increasing among developers even as choices for middle-income homebuyers are narrowing.

That divergence is emerging as the next big test for the National Capital Region (NCR) real estate. National developers accounted for just 3 per cent of the region’s new residential supply in 2022. Their share, however, had crossed 13 per cent by the end of 2025, ANAROCK data show. Between 2022 and the first quarter of 2026, these national developers launched more than 15,130 units across 30 projects in Delhi-NCR, with Godrej Properties accounting for over 47 per cent of the units launched by the developers analysed.

The list is expanding. Lodha Developers is entering the NCR housing market in FY27 as part of a broader expansion plan that includes 21 housing launches and new phases, with an estimated revenue potential of about Rs 24,000 crore.

Oberoi Realty is entering the NCR market with a 14.8-acre ultra-luxury residential project in Gurugram’s Sector 58. While the project’s gross development value is estimated at about Rs 10,000 crore by brokers, the company has indicated a total revenue potential of about Rs 16,000 crore across the two phases.

The attraction is not difficult to understand. NCR offers large development opportunities across Gurugram, Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad, while infrastructure expansion and stronger demand for branded housing have created room for organised developers to scale up.

But developers are entering after a sharp repricing of several NCR markets. Residential values along the Dwarka Expressway, for instance, rose 98 per cent between 2020 and 2024, from Rs 9,434 per sq ft to Rs 18,668  sq ft, PropEquity data show.

The market’s sales mix has changed just as sharply. In the first quarter of 2026, homes priced above Rs 1 crore accounted for around 71 per cent of residential sales across India’s top seven cities, JLL said. In Delhi‑NCR specifically, brokerages such as Equirus also pegged the Rs 1‑crore‑plus share at about 71 per cent in Q1 2026. Residential capital values across NCR had risen 19–23 per cent year‑on‑year during 2025, while JLL recorded annual increases of 12–15 per cent in early 2026.

For developers, that creates a straightforward commercial case for premium housing. Construction costs have risen by around 40 per cent over the past five years (2019–2024), ANAROCK estimates, with the sharpest increases after 2021.

Higher land costs in sought‑after corridors add another constraint. Selling larger, higher‑priced homes can, therefore, offer better economics than trying to develop housing at substantially lower ticket sizes.

For buyers, the equation runs in the opposite direction. A Rs 3-crore home does not become affordable merely because mortgage rates decline. Higher property prices increase both the upfront equity required from a buyer and the amount that needs to be borrowed. Larger apartment sizes further raise the absolute ticket even where per-square-foot prices appear manageable.

Knight Frank’s 2025 Affordability Index captured that pressure. NCR was the only major housing market covered by the index where affordability deteriorated during the year, even as it improved elsewhere, largely because higher property prices outweighed the benefit of lower home‑loan rates.

The supply side offers little relief. Across the top seven cities, homes priced below Rs 40 lakh accounted for 40 per cent of new launches in 2019. Their share had fallen to 16 per cent in 2024 and 12 per cent in the first half of 2025, ANAROCK data show.

This is producing an increasingly two-speed NCR market. Affluent households and investors continue to support premium projects in Gurugram and parts of Noida. First-time and salaried buyers unable to absorb those ticket sizes are being pushed towards Greater Noida West, the Yamuna Expressway and other peripheral locations.

The trade-off is no longer simply between a bigger and a smaller home. Buyers may have to exchange proximity for affordability, while taking a view on connectivity, social infrastructure, project delivery and the depth of the resale market.

There are also signs that sales are becoming more selective. JLL recorded 10,740 NCR housing sales in the first quarter of 2026, down 3 per cent sequentially. Separately, ANAROCK recorded a 6 per cent year‑on‑year decline in NCR sales in the second quarter of 2026, with sales falling to around 13,365 units from 14,255 units a year earlier. The two datasets use different comparison periods, but both point to moderation in volumes while prices remain elevated.

That brings the national-developer expansion to its more important phase. The question is no longer whether NCR can attract large developers; it clearly can. It is what those developers will compete on once more of them are chasing the region's premium buyer.

Avneesh Sood, Director, Eros Group, says, “NCR continues to attract national developers because of its scale, infrastructure growth and demand for branded housing. But greater competition should eventually translate into greater choice for buyers, not just higher-priced projects. With ticket sizes rising, affordability will increasingly shape demand. Developers that can balance quality and execution with practical configurations and accessible price points will be better positioned to address a wider homebuyer base and support more sustainable growth in the NCR housing market.”

If demand at the upper end remains strong, competition could continue to revolve around brand, amenities, specifications and increasingly premium products rather than price. NCR would become more organised and institutionalised, but not necessarily more accessible.

“If premium supply begins to run ahead of demand, however, developers could have to look beyond that formula. Smaller configurations, different ticket sizes and expansion into relatively lower-cost micro-markets could become ways to widen the addressable buyer base. There is not yet enough evidence to conclude that this transition is underway,” adds Sood.

Nor does the current evidence make a sharp decline in NCR home prices the central case. Slower appreciation and a longer period of price consolidation appear more plausible, particularly if buyers become increasingly resistant to higher ticket sizes.

For national developers, NCR remains a large growth opportunity. For the market, however, the measure of competition may eventually be different. More developers building Rs 5-crore homes would increase supply, but not necessarily widen the market.

The real competitive shift will come when developers begin competing not only for the same affluent buyer, but for the household that increasingly finds itself priced out of NCR’s primary housing market.