Trump Tariffs, CPI Inflation, Ukraine Ceasefire And Other Market Cues To Watch This Week

The domestic equity benchmark indices extended their losing streak for the sixth consecutive week. The selling pressure last week came on the back of escalating trade tensions between India and the United States (US). Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were sellers in four of the five days during the previous week, selling shares worth Rs 11,770.22 crore.

At close on August 8, the Nifty 50 was at 24,363.30, down 232.85 points, or 0.95 per cent. Likewise, the Sensex gave up the 80,000-level, closing at 79,857.79, down 765.47 points, or 0.95 per cent.

Equity markets are set for a busy week, from August 11 to August 14, as investors brace for a string of macroeconomic data releases, corporate earnings, and likely geopolitical developments that could influence the direction of the market. On August 15, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) will remain closed on account of India’s Independence Day. The Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) will also observe a holiday on August 15.

Key Market Cues To Watch Next Week

India July 2025 CPI Inflation

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation data for July on August 12, 2025. Investors will be closely watching the inflation numbers to see if the recent easing in price pressures, which are already at a six-year low, will continue or if there are signs of a rebound that could impact the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy decisions in its October meeting.

In the August monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, the RBI decided to keep the repo rate steady at 5.5 per cent and retained its ‘neutral’ stance.

Investors will also keep a track of Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation, which is set to release on August 14, 2025.

US Core Inflation

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release core CPI inflation on August 12. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy segments, increased 0.2 per cent in June from the preceding month. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.9 per cent.

According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the core CPI in the US likely rose by 0.3 per cent in July.

If the inflation comes in weaker than expected, it could lead to more pressure from US President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Fed, in its previous meeting in July, kept its benchmark interest rate between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent.

India-US Trade Deal

Last week, Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods because, according to him, India is continuing to buy Russian oil. This sudden escalation has raised concerns among investors and the market is already feeling the pressure.

The initial 25 per cent tariffs, announced on August 1, came into effect on August 7. The additional 25 per tariffs will come into effect from August 27. This gives room for both the countries to negotiate the tariff terms and come to a mutually beneficial resolution.

If there are any signs of Trump softening his stance, it could offer much-needed relief to India’s equity markets.

US-China Trade Deal

The US and China have recently held several rounds of discussions to try and extend a 90-day pause on tariffs, which is set to end on August 12. If the talks result in a favourable trade deal, it could have important implications for global markets, including India.

A successful deal between the US and China could boost investor confidence in Chinese markets, which may lead some foreign investors to reduce their exposure to India and move funds to China.

Ukraine Ceasefire

US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet on August 15 in Alaska. The high-stakes summit will focus on ending the ongoing war in Ukraine. The summit aims to negotiate a ceasefire or peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. Trump had earlier said that if Putin doesn’t agree to end the war, he will start new sanctions on Russia and any country that keeps buying Russian goods starting August 8. The war has been going on for three and a half years.

If the summit does not succeed and the sanctions begin, oil prices might go up. This could cause Indian stocks to fall, especially in sectors that depend on oil. However, if the leaders make progress toward peace, the markets could go up because of better stability and lower oil prices.

Q1 Results This Week

As the April-June quarter (Q1 FY26) earnings season comes to a close, a total of 2,012 companies listed on the BSE are scheduled to report their Q1 results.

Among some of the big names that will be reporting their earnings are Ashok Leyland, ONGC, Indian Oil Company (IOC), Hindalco Industries, BPCL, Bata India, Ipca Laboratories, MRF, Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL), Suzlon Energy, and Tata Chemicals.

Investors will also react to the results posted by companies over the weekend.