Summary of this article
Markets traded flat as lower oil prices offset Fed rate-hike concerns
US-Iran peace deal pushed crude lower, improving India's macro outlook
Analysts remain cautious despite improved sentiment and recent market gains
Sensex, Nifty Today: Indian equities opened on a subdued note on June 18, 2026, as investors weighed the relief from lower crude oil prices against the US Federal Reserve's signal that further interest rate hikes could be on table later this year. Softer oil prices supported sentiment by improving India's inflation and external-sector outlook, though caution prevailed as a hike in US interest rates could strengthen the dollar and trigger foreign capital outflows from emerging markets like India.
Broader markets were relativley trading higher, as the Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 indices were up by 0.15 per cent and 0.50 per cent, around the same time.
Among the sectoral indices, banks, financial services, FMCG, pharma, and healthcare were trading in green, while IT, metal, oil & gas, auto, realty, consumer durables, cement and chemical were in red.
Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Max Healthcare jumped over 5 per cent to emerge as the top gainer, followed by Trent, HDFC Bank, Eicher Motors, HDFC Life Insurance, and Bharat Electronics. On the other hand, dragging the index were Infosys, falling over 2 per cent, followed by Grasim, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, and Eternal (formerly Zomato).
Crude Oil Falls After US, Iran Sign Peace Deal
Brent crude prices fell further after the US and Iran signed an interim agreement that would end the conflict. Brent crude futures were down 168 cents, or 2.11 per cent, at $77.87 a barrel as of 10:45 AM, and US West Texas Intermediate fell 186 cents, or 2.42 per cent, to $74.94 a barrel.
The deal is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow Iranian oil exports to return to global markets through sanctions relief, easing concerns over supply disruptions. As part of the agreement, Iran has agreed to dilute its enriched uranium in return for large-scale economic relief.
Pakistan said the agreement to end the Iran conflict has taken effect immediately after being signed by both sides, although a formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a post on X that the deal “shall enter into force with immediate effect and as a first step, Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade.”
Asian Shares Trade Higher, US Stocks End In Red
Asian markets were mixed in early trade. MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed, while Japan's Nikkei 225 surged over 2 per cent to a fresh record high, crossing the 71,000 mark for the first time, led by strong buying in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. South Korea's benchmark index Kospi also rose nearly 2 per cent.
Meanwhile, Wall Street ended lower overnight after investors grew concerned that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again. The selloff followed comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who stressed the need to bring inflation under control, while other policymakers signalled higher rates later this year. The Dow Jones fell nearly 1 per cent, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost more than 1 per cent each.
What Should Investors Do
The fall in crude oil prices and easing tensions in West Asia have improved sentiment towards Indian equities and provided support to the market. However, analysts say investors should remain cautious and not assume the recent rally will continue uninterrupted.
"The near-term outlook for Indian equities has improved following the US-Iran truce, primarily due to the sharp correction in crude oil prices. As a major oil importer, India stands to benefit from lower energy costs, easing inflation concerns, improving corporate margin expectations, and supporting foreign investor sentiment," said Ravi Singh, chief research officer at Master Capital Services.
He added, "While the sentiment has turned positive, the sustainability of the rally will depend on the durability of the ceasefire, crude oil remaining contained, Q1FY27 earnings performance, and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) participation. Any renewed geopolitical tensions or sharp rebound in oil prices could quickly reverse the current optimism. Therefore, while the near-term bias remains positive, investors should remain mindful of global and domestic macro risks."
