Equity benchmark indices staged a strong recovery last week after six weeks of continuous sell-offs. Investor sentiment improved after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. However, confusion over whether Israel and Lebanon are included in the agreement kept investors cautious and capped the recovery.
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire helped ease crude oil supply concerns. This pulled the prices back below the $100 level after staying elevated for an extended period of time.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its April 6–8 meeting, kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent and maintained a neutral stance, indicating a balanced approach between controlling inflation and supporting growth without rushing into policy changes.
On the growth side, the RBI raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal year 2025–26 (FY26) to 7.60 per cent. However, it expects growth to ease to 6.90 per cent in FY27.
The central bank raised its inflation projection to 4.60 per cent for FY27, attributing it to rising energy costs and possible disruptions due to adverse weather conditions.
Key Stock Market Cues To Watch Next Week
The following stock market cues are likely to drive action on D-Street in the coming week, from April 13 to April 17:
India CPI Inflation
The National Statistical Office (NSO) is set to release India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for March 2026 on April 13, which will be a key data point to watch amid the ongoing US-Iran war. The data will provide an early overview of how the conflict in West Asia is affecting the Indian economy, especially after nearly a 50 per cent rise in crude oil prices.
Investors and policymakers will closely watch the number to see whether inflation stays within the RBI’s tolerance band of 2-6 per cent.
Further, on April 14, the Office of the Economic Advisor will release Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation for March, another key macroeconomic data point to watch.
Q4 Results
As many as 50 companies listed on the BSE will release their quarterly results for the period ended March 31, 2026, during the week. ICICI and HDFC group stocks, Indian Bank, Angel One, and Wipro are some of the key names which will post their Q4 FY26 results.
FPI Selling
In April so far, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 48,213 crore from Indian equities, following a record Rs 1.18 lakh crore outflow in March. Even though the market staged a strong recovery last week, FPIs continued to be net sellers.
According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, other markets like South Korea and Taiwan look more attractive right now because they are expected to deliver stronger earnings growth compared to India’s modest outlook for FY27. He added that although the recent market correction after the US-Iran war has made valuations more reasonable, they are still not at levels that make Indian equities a clear “buy” yet.
US-Iran War
The war in West Asia will remain in focus as the US and Iranian officials, including US Vice President JD Vance, arrived in Islamabad earlier today for talks aimed at ending the six-week conflict. Pakistan is acting as a mediator, and both sides are now engaged in preliminary discussions.
Any breakthrough in peace talks could improve risk sentiment, but ongoing uncertainty may keep volatility elevated in the near term.
