Stock Market This Week: Benchmark indices ended lower the previous week after gaining for two straight weeks, as rising geopolitical tensions and weak earnings commentary from major IT companies hurt investor sentiment.
After opening slightly higher, markets remained under pressure for most of the week due to continuous selling. The Nifty 50 fell 1.87 percent to close at 23,897.95, while the Sensex declined 2.33 percent to settle at 76,664.21.
Overall, the market lost around 2 percent in the week ended April 24, snapping its two-week winning streak. This came after a sharp recovery of over 10 percent from the April 2 lows.
Several global and domestic factors weighed on equities. Rising tensions in West Asia pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. Stalled US-Iran talks, a weaker rupee, continued foreign investor selling, and concerns over slowing economic growth highlighted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and foreign brokerages also added pressure on the market.
In the coming holiday-shortened week, the focus will be on the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) meeting, crude oil price fluctuations amid ongoing US-Iran talks, and a slew of macroeconomic data releases. Notably, domestic stock exchanges will remain closed on Friday, May 1 in observance of Maharashtra day.
Stock Market This Week: Cues To Watch
The following cues will likely dictate stock market investor sentiment through out the week.
US Fed Meeting
The US Fed is expected the keep the key interest rate unchanged when it hold the meet on April 28-29, as policymakers are still assessing the impact of the US-Iran war.
Before the US-Israel attack, traders were expecting the US Fed to cut interest rates two or three times this year. When oil prices jumped, they started believing the Fed might raise rates instead of cutting them.
According to Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch Tool, traders are fully expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent range.
US GDP Data
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release its gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for March 2026, a key data point that could offer fresh insight into how the US-Iran conflict has affected the world’s largest economy.
US-Iran Talks
Iran has proposed a three-stage formula for negotiations should the United States want to return to the table for peace talks, local media reported, as both sides walked away from the second round of such discussions in Pakistan.
According to reports, Iran has told mediators that talks can resume only after a complete end to the war and guarantees against renewed attacks on Iran and Lebanon. Once that is agreed, the next stage would involve discussions on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said the nuclear issue, including uranium enrichment and stockpile demands, would be discussed only after progress on the first two stages.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices will be in focus this week as the US and Iran continue talks, with any positive or negative developments likely to affect supply concerns and price movement.
Key Macroeconomic Data Releases
Investors will track several important data releases this week. In the US, crude oil inventories and initial jobless claims data will be released on April 30. China will also announce its manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on the same day, giving signals on factory activity.
In India, manufacturing PMI and monthly auto sales data will be released on May 1.
Among central banks, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on April 28, while the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce their policy decisions on April 30.
