Summary of this article
RBI survey shows households expect inflation to surge to 10%.
Over eighty-four percent anticipate rising food prices next year.
General prices and service costs are also projected to increase.
Indian households expect inflation to remain elevated over the coming year, with their expected rate rising to 10 per cent in September 2026 from 9.4 per cent in July, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest Inflation Expectations Survey of Households.
The survey was conducted between September 10 and 20 across 19 major cities and received 5,987 responses. It captures how households perceive current inflation and what they expect over the next three months and one year. These figures reflect household expectations.
Households Expect Inflation To Rise Further
Households' perception of current inflation rose to 8.4 per cent in September from 7.8 per cent in July. This reflects how respondents viewed the prevailing rate of price increases when they were surveyed.
Expectations for the coming months were higher. Households expected inflation to reach 9.9 per cent over the next three months, up from 9.2 per cent in July. For the next year, their expectation increased to 10 per cent from 9.4 per cent.
Food Prices Remain A Concern
The survey also asked households whether prices in different categories were likely to rise. In September, 84.9 per cent of respondents expected food prices to increase over the next three months, compared with 84.2 per cent in July.
The share expecting food prices to rise faster than their current rate increased to 61.6 per cent from 60 per cent in July. Another 17.7 per cent expected food prices to rise at a rate similar to the current rate, while 5.6 per cent anticipated a slower increase. Around 10.8 per cent expected no change in food prices and 4.3 per cent expected them to decline. These responses show that most surveyed households anticipated further food price increases, although not all expected prices to rise at a faster rate.
Expectations For General And Other Prices
Expectations for general prices also increased. In September, 81.9 per cent of respondents expected general prices to rise over the next three months, up from 80.7 per cent in July. The proportion expecting general prices to rise faster than their current rate increased to 59 per cent from 57.1 per cent. For non-food items, 79.4 per cent expected prices to rise over the next three months, compared with 79.3 per cent in July. The share expecting household durables prices to increase rose to 69.6 per cent from 67.5 per cent.
Looking further ahead, 75 per cent of respondents expected food prices to rise over the next year. The corresponding shares were 73.9 per cent for non-food items, 70.4 per cent for household durables, 74.7 per cent for housing and 76.5 per cent for the cost of services.
