The likelihood of US President-elect Donald Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve after taking office on January 20 is gaining traction, especially on betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
On Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, bettors estimate a nearly 70% probability that Trump will create a US Bitcoin reserve in 2026. Meanwhile, users on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, assign a 42% chance of this happening within his first 100 days in office.
Data reveals that odds on both platforms have risen by approximately 20% since their early January lows. Bettors are also anticipating record highs for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in 2025.
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Prediction markets operate by allowing users to trade contracts linked to specific events, with prices dynamically adjusting based on expected outcomes.
Polymarket and Kalshi rose to prominence in the runup to the US elections in November, with upward of $4 billion in trading volume tied to the US presidential race alone. They proved to be more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Crypto.com Gets EU Nod On MiCA License
According to the cryptocurrency exchange, Crypto.com has secured in-principal approval to operate across the European Union under a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license.
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Once the MICA license is finalized, it will enable Crypto.com to operate in EU countries under a unified regulatory framework.
On Jan. 17, crypto.com said that it is the first global exchange to receive this designation, without specifying which jurisdiction granted the license.
Crypto.com also claims MiCA “will bring clarity, transparency, and establish a more streamlined sentiment towards the regulation of our industry across the EU, all of which adds to the building confidence in the crypto sector,” said Eric Anziani, Crypto.com’s president and chief operating officer.
Coinbase CEO Calls On Countries To Establish Bitcoin Reserves
The CEO of US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Brian Armstrong has endorsed plans for global leaders to create Bitcoin strategic reserves.
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In a blog post on Jan 17, titled “Economic Freedom,” Armstrong said cryptocurrencies were ”the next chapter capitalism,” offering suggestions for policymakers to integrate digital assets into their economies in 2025.
Ideas of the coinbase CEO included crypto-friendly laws, government efficiency, special economic zones, and the establishment of a Bitcoin BTC $102,779 reserve as a hedge against inflation.
Armstrong speculated, that “the next global arms race will be in the digital economy, not space.”
“Bitcoin could be as foundational to the global economy as gold and will become central to national security in a world where holdings of Bitcoin can shift the balance of power among nation-states” he added.
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During 2024 elections, coinbase deepened its ties to US lawmakers and contributed more than $45 million to the Fairshake political action committee and donated $1 million to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration fund.
Armstrong reportedly met with Trump in November to discuss personnel appointments, suggesting the crypto exchange could significantly influence US policy.
