Summary of this article
Trump accepted an invitation from Xi to visit Beijing in April, 2026 during a telephonic conversation
More Fed officials vouch for another quarter-point interest rate cut
Crude oil prices under pressure due to the prospects of a US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace deal
In the previous session on November 24, benchmark indices extended declines for the second consecutive session. Sensex ended at 84,900.71 levels, down by 331.21 points or 0.39 per cent, and Nifty 50 settled at 25,959.50, down by 108.65 points or 0.42 per cent.
Key Market Cues To Watch On November 25
Trump-Xi Talks
US President Donald Trump said on November 24 that he has accepted an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Beijing in April, 2026. He has also invited Xi for a state visit to the US later next year. The two leaders, during a telephonic conversation, spoke about a range of issues, including the war in Ukraine, fentanyl trafficking and China’s purchases of American soybeans.
“Our relationship with China is extremely strong!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
The conversation comes at a time when China–Japan relations have hit a new low following recent comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who said Japan’s military could get involved if China were to take action against Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing claims as its territory.
Increased US Fed Rate Cut Hopes
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on November 24 that the latest data shows the US job market remains soft enough to justify another quarter-point interest rate cut.
Rate-cut expectations strengthened further after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal that she supports lowering rates at the central bank’s meeting next month, citing signs of a weakening labour market.
Earlier, New York Fed President John Williams said at an event in Santiago on November 21 that monetary policy remains “somewhat restrictive” and that there may be “room to adjust the policy rate.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 80.90 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark rate to 3.50–3.75 per cent at its December 9-10 policy meeting. This is a 36.50 percentage point jump from 44.4 per cent a week earlier.
US Stock Market
Wall Street's key indices closed higher overnight, extending its previous sessions' rally as growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut buoyed sentiment.
At the close, the Dow Jones added 0.44 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 1.55 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.69 per cent, led by tech shares.
Nvidia rose more than 2 per cent, Alphabet jumped 6.30 per cent following reports that Google is in talks with Meta to supply its AI chips, and Tesla gained 7 per cent after a bullish analyst call lifted investor sentiment.
Asian Stock Markets
Asian stock market indices opened higher on November 24, driven by recovery in tech stocks on the Wall Street and increased bets on US Fed rate cut. However, few hours into the trade, most indices lost momentum.
Japan's Nikkei 225 opened nearly a per cent higher, however, lost momentum to trade around flat level. Similarly, South Korea's Kospi started more than 2 per cent higher, but is now trading flat. The Hong Kong-based Hang Seng too rose as much as 1.40 per cent before losing momentum to trade with 0.60 per cent gains. China's CSI 300, however, held on the to the initial gains, and is trading above 1.25 per cent.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices slipped in early trade on November 25, weighed down by the possibility of a US-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. However, the decline was capped as US sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies came into force on November 21.
The Brent crude oil futures traded lower by 0.35 per cent at $62.50 per barrel, while the West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures quoted 0.42 per cent down at $58.67 per barrel.
USD vs INR
The Indian rupee (INR) was little changed against the US dollar (USD) in early trade on November 25. The USD/INR pair quoted at 89.164, up 0.02 per cent at 10:40 AM. The pair moved in a narrow range, trading between 88.977 and 89.189 so far in the session.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index futures, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.10 per cent to trade at 100.172, as of the same time. The index hovered in a tight band between 100.047 and 100.192.
