Summary of this article
Even investing right before a crash has historically given decent long-term returns.
Missing the 15 best days can cut your portfolio value by two-thirds.
Volatility is routine; long-term equity investing still beats inflation over long run.
Most new mutual fund investors struggle with the classic dilemma: What is the right time to invest? They keep waiting for the “perfect” moment, hoping to enter the market at the lowest point. The irony is—nobody knows when that right time actually is. As a result, many end up delaying their investments and missing out on real opportunities. Instead of participating in long-term wealth creation, they remain spectators. The biggest fear for most new investors is: what if I invest and the market crashes right after?
A detailed study by FundsIndia examined exactly this scenario: what happens if you invest right before a major crash. Yes, historical performance doesn’t guarantee the same outcomes in the future, but this study looked at several real instances across decades. The findings give new investors a very practical understanding of what to expect and whether timing the market is worth the anxiety.
Investing Right Before a Crash: Long-Term Returns Still Turn Out Decent
According to the study, even if you invest at the worst possible moment, that is, right before a crash, long-term returns still tend to turn out surprisingly decent.
Take the most recent example: the COVID-19 crash in 2020. The benchmark Nifty 50 TRI fell by 38.30 per cent during the crisis. Yet, an investor who invested at the peak, on January 14, 2020, still earned a CAGR of 15 per cent as of October 31, 2025.
The same pattern shows up across earlier events, too. The 2015 global selloff, the 2010 European debt crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis, and even the 2000 dotcom bust. Despite entering at the worst possible time, investors who stayed invested over long durations still earned double-digit annual returns. Look at the chart below for details.
Timing the Market Rarely Works: Best Days Come Right After the Worst Days
Equity returns are non-linear. Missing a few of the best days in the market significantly reduces returns. As per the FundsIndia study, if an investor missed the 15 best days in the last 25 years, their portfolio value would be two-thirds lower.
The irony is striking. Seven out of the 10 best market days occurred within just two weeks of the 10 worst days. For example, the worst day of 2020 (March 23) was immediately followed by the second-best day of the same year.
This means, if you stepped out of the market during panic, and tried to wait for clarity, you most likely missed the recovery, which often comes swiftly and unexpectedly. The chart below shows the value of Rs 10 lakh invested in Nifty 50 TRI between 1999 and 2025 till October 31.
Over long periods—10 to 15 years, equities have historically delivered inflation plus 4 per cent to 6 per cent returns on average. At the same time, 10 to 20 per cent declines happen almost every year. Market corrections are not an exception; they are part of the journey.
And that’s exactly the point. Wealth is created not by perfectly timing the market, but by staying invested through its ups and downs.
