Market Cues This Week: RBI MPC Meeting, India-US Trade Deal, And Macroeconomic Data To Watch

Domestic equity benchmark indices fell in all the five sessions last week, erasing more than the gains made in the previous two weeks.

The selling pressure came amid concerns over the H-1B visa fee hike choking India's IT sector, fresh US tariffs on pharmaceutical products, and amid ongoing uncertainty about the India-US trade deal.

During last week, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex lost over 2.65 per cent each. At close, on September 26, Nifty 50 was at 24,654.70, and Sensex was at 80,426.46.

Broader markets witnessed sharper selling, with the Nifty Midcap 100 falling over 4.60 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 sliding more than 5 per cent.

Sector-wise, IT stocks emerged as the biggest losers, weighed down by rising H-1B visa costs and muted outlook by Accenture, a bellweather for Indian IT firms. Nifty IT index plunged 7.86 per cent during the previous week.

During its announcement of the quarterly results for the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal year 2025 (FY25), Accenture said that its growth is likely to slow in the next financial year as it braces for lower spending by the US federal government on consulting services. The IT and consulting major expects this to trim its revenue by about 1–1.5 per cent during FY26. Accenture follows a September–August financial year. The company is also laying off staff as it is shifting its focus to artificial intelligence (AI), CEO Julie Sweet said during the Q4 earnings call.

Looking forward, a host of geopolitical factors as well as several macroeconomic data releases are expected to guide investor sentiment this truncated week, from September 29 to October 3. October 2 will be a stock market holiday in observance of Gandhi Jayanti.

Key Market Cues To Watch This Week

India-US Trade Deal

According to reports, India held "constructive" talks with US officials in Washington last week to push forward a trade deal. Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal led the delegation on September 22–24 and met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and ambassador-designate Sergio Gor.

The Ministry of Commerce said both sides discussed the contours of a possible agreement and agreed to continue talks. Goyal and Greer also joined Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar's meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, where trade and tariffs were the main focus.

RBI MPC Meeting

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet from September 29 to October 1 to review interest rates. Currently, the repo rate stands at 5.50 per cent. Market participants will be tracking whether the MPC will announce any cuts in the repo rate or will it hold the interest rates steady.

In its previous policy review, the RBI kept rates unchanged, but since February 2025, it has cut the repo rate by almost one percentage point.

India IIP Data August 2025

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to release India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for August on September 29. Market participants will be looking for signs of industrial growth and economic momentum.

Monthly Automobile Sales Data

Automakers will begin releasing their monthly sales figures for the August month from September 1 onwards. Market participants will be looking for demand recovery amid festive season.

US Macro Figures

Market participants will also be watching key US economic data, including the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and ADP non-farm employment data on October 1, and non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and non-manufacturing and services PMI on October 3, to gauge the health of the world's largest economy.