Swiss Re: India’s Insurance Market Set For 6.9 Per Cent CAGR Through 2030

Backed by resilient economic growth, a visible uptick in risk awareness, and a regulatory environment that has quietly but steadily turned more supportive, India’s insurance market is projected to grow at roughly 6.9 per cent in real CAGR terms between 2026 and 2030. The figure comes from a new Swiss Re assessment report, called “India’s economic and insurance market outlook”. The Zurich-based reinsurer report stands out not for the number alone, but for the comparison: that pace is expected to run ahead of major emerging and advanced insurance markets, including the United States and China, over the same period. For a sector long described as under-penetrated, such positioning would have sounded ambitious a decade ago; today it feels more plausible.

Amitabha Ray, Swiss Re market head for India, says. "India is a true bright spot for insurance growth in the mid-term as opportunities emerge, especially in health and motor insurance. We are set to benefit from forward-looking regulatory reform, digital innovation, and a disciplined but attractive product mix for consumers. Insurance growth will benefit India, as it acts as a significant financial shock absorber for millions of Indian families and businesses as they face increased risk from natural catastrophes, increasing healthcare costs, and the financial pressures of an ageing population."

The broader backdrop helps explain why. The economy has held course through successive global headwinds, households are gradually shifting toward formal financial savings, and the consumer’s relationship with risk has changed since the pandemic. Not long ago, many people bought insurance mainly to claim a tax break or to satisfy a bank. That’s changed. Rising medical bills, worries about retirement, and the need to protect assets have pulled insurance into everyday financial planning.

Life Insurance Regains Momentum After A Soft Patch

Life insurers still dominate the market by a wide margin. They did hit a slow spell in 2023 and early 2024 after tax rules clipped demand for big-ticket savings plans. But that pause didn’t last. Once the new norms were understood, companies reworked their product mix and carried on. Guaranteed-return plans found a home among risk-averse savers, while pure protection products began resonating with younger earners juggling equated monthly instalments (EMIs), dependents, and longer working lives.

Distribution, too, has changed character. Bancassurance remains key, but digital onboarding and hybrid advisory models have cut friction from the buying process. Insurance has also piggybacked on India’s financialisation trend, with households diversifying beyond gold, real estate, and fixed deposits toward a mix of equities, mutual funds, retirement instruments, and life cover. Swiss Re’s outlook assumes this behavioural shift continues, which is not unreasonable given demographic and income dynamics.

Non-Life Broadens Beyond Motor And Mediclaim

In the general insurance space, the usual growth engines—motor and health—are in place, but the composition is broadening. Corporate buyers are paying attention to climate and supply-chain risk; cyber coverage is no longer niche; and demand for liability and property covers has risen in sectors such as manufacturing and logistics. Agricultural and catastrophe insurance remain patchy but cannot be written off, particularly in flood-prone states and regions where extreme weather has become an annual storyline.

Medical inflation has quietly become one of the most potent drivers of health insurance demand. The cost of hospitalisation in tier-one and tier-two cities has moved to levels that middle-income households cannot comfortably absorb without cover. This has pushed both individual and employer policies higher, supporting the non-life growth narrative.

The Road To 2030 And The Global League Table

India currently sits somewhere near the global top ten in premium ranking. If the projected 6.9 per cent CAGR plays out, the market could climb several places over the decade, even though absolute size gaps against the largest economies will remain wide. The more consequential outcome may be penetration: coverage relative to GDP and population remains low enough to leave significant headroom.

None of this dismisses the challenges. Climate exposure is high across industrial corridors; actuarial data and underwriting sophistication need continued investment; and rural penetration remains uneven. Yet the tone of the conversation has shifted. Analysts and insurers are no longer debating whether India can grow, but how fast and with what product mix.

For now, the market enters its next phase with the rare combination of demographics, income growth, and regulatory alignment, giving it a chance to close the long-standing protection gap and, in the process, redefine its position on the global insurance map.