The first week of the new financial year is set to be a truncated one as the markets will remain closed on Monday, March 31. The benchmark indices continued to gain in the last week of FY 2024-25. The Sensex gained 0.66 per cent and the Nifty gained 0.72 per cent in the one-week period between March 21 and March 28.
In the latter half of March, the Indian stock market managed to gain despite heightened volatility and uncertainty regarding US President Donald Trump’s policy decisions. Here’s a look at some factors which are likely to impact how Indian stock markets will trade in the coming week:
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Tariff Imposition
US President Donald Trump is expected to impose a series of tariffs targeting the import of goods from other countries. Earlier in February, Trump announced that the US would impose the tariffs from April 2, 2025. Trump added that the policy is aimed at ‘reciprocating’ the tariffs other countries apply on the US. Following the announcement stock markets across the globe have traded under pressure. The stock market is expected to factor in the effect of the proposed tariffs after April 2 in the rest of the days of the week.
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Monthly Auto Sales data
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) is all set to release the monthly automotive sales data for the month of March. The data is expected to be released on April 1. The markets are likely to factor in the sales trends in the upcoming sessions of the week.
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) aims to provide insights into the health and trends of the Indian manufacturing sector. The index tracks several key variables like production, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times. The data will be released later between April 1 and April 4. Notably, the PMI fell to a 14-month low in February, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropping to 56.3 from 57.7 in January.
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FII Selling/Buying Trends
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) snapped a five-month-long selling streak. After remaining net sellers from October 2024 to February 2025, FIIs made a net purchase of Rs 2,014.18 crore. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors remained net buyers in March, buying equities worth Rs 37,585.68 crore. Notably, the FIIs have continued their buying spree for the past 20 months since August 2023.
Rupee’s Rise
On March 28, the Indian rupee closed 33 paise higher at Rs 85.46 per US dollar. Notably the currency touched its three-month high level. The currency has also appreciated by 2.17 per cent in March. It remains to be seen how the markets will factor in the improvement made by the domestic currency as trading resumes on April 1.
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Brent Crude Futures
Oil prices witnessed a decline on Friday as Brent crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to close at $73.63 per barrel. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) declined 56 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to close at $69.36 per barrel.
Changed Expiry days for F&O
On March 27, the Sebi released a consultation paper proposing that the expiry day for the trading of the equity derivatives segment be shifted to either Tuesday or Thursday. Prior to the release of the paper, NSE had earlier proposed to shift the expiry to Monday from Thursday. The markets are likely to witness volatility due to the changed Nifty F&O expiry.
