MCX Gold Breaches Rs 95000 For First Time As Trade War Tensions Escalate

MCX Gold’s June Futures contract breached the Rs 95,000 level for the first time on April 16, 2025, jumping by Rs 1,984, or, 2.12 per cent to hit a fresh record high of Rs 95,435 per 10 gram.

"Gold showed a solid rally once again amid renewed tariff panic, as market participants seized the opportunity to go long amid the escalating trade tussle,” said Jateen Trivedi, vice president, research analyst – commodity and currency, LKP Securities.

In the international market, the widely-traded COMEX Gold’s June Futures contract touched a record high of $3,334.2 an ounce.

Trade Tensions Between US, China Escalate, Driving Gold Rush 

Trivedi explained that the rally in gold prices is largely driven by rising geopolitical uncertainty and the lack of any trade talks between the US and China. 

Unless there is a clear sign of de-escalation in tensions or a return to negotiations, gold is likely to remain at elevated levels, he said.

However, he added that if both the countries move towards resolving issues, the momentum could fizzle out. For now, gold should trade in the Rs 94,000-95,500 range on the MCX, he said.

According to Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-commodity research, Kotak Securities, the recent rally in gold prices was mainly driven by rising trade war fears, especially after the US government tightened export rules for China.

Chainwala also noted that US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an investigation into whether tariffs are needed on critical minerals, has further fuelled market anxiety. 

She said all eyes are now on US retail sales data and an upcoming speech from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for further more clarity on where the monetary policy might be headed.