Summary of this article
• RBI projects FY27 growth at 6.6 percent, repo unchanged, neutral stance policy
• FY27 CPI inflation projected at 5.1 percent with quarterly variations core inflation
• Global risks include supply chain disruptions, weather shocks, El Nino inflation pressure
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting concluded today, with the Indian economy projected to grow at 6.6 per cent in FY27. The projection provides an updated view of the growth outlook for the upcoming fiscal year. The MPC also kept the policy repo rate unchanged.
The MPC has outlined quarterly growth estimates for FY27, with real GDP growth projected at 6.6 per cent in the first quarter, 6.3 per cent in the second quarter, 6.5 per cent in the third quarter, and 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Earlier, the Reserve Bank of India had estimated India’s growth outlook for FY27 at around 6.9 per cent, which has now been revised to 6.6 per cent in its latest projections.
RBI said, “Prolonged global supply chain disruptions, volatility in global financial markets, and weather-related shocks continue to pose downside risks to the domestic growth outlook. ”
For FY27, CPI inflation has been projected at 5.1 per cent, with quarterly estimates placed at 4.2 per cent in Q1, 5.1 per cent in Q2, 5.9 per cent in Q3, and 5.4 per cent in Q4. Core inflation is expected to remain at 4.7 per cent for the full fiscal year.
The Reserve Bank of India said these forecasts are subject to upside risks from global supply chain disruptions, volatility in global commodity prices, uncertainty around the spatial and temporal distribution of the south-west monsoon, and the possibility of El Niño conditions.
