Summary of this article
Retirement saving harder amid jobs, inflation.
Borrowing and lifestyle spending erode savings.
Diversification and goal-based investing essential.
Saving for retirement is becoming tougher than it was earlier, and a major factor is the dearth of jobs or loss of jobs, Saurabh Mukherjea, founder, Marcellus Investment Managers said at the Outlook Money 40After40 Retirement Expo in Mumbai on February 21, 2026. Add to it, the rising cost of living, low salary hikes and reliance on borrowings to fund lifestyle expenses, and the problem compounds, he added.
The First Challenge: Jobs
He said there are fewer jobs available nowadays and this is before artificial intelligence comes in with all its might and takes away even more jobs. White collar jobs, he said, are increasingly evaporating fast.
“There’s plenty of data on this. White-collar jobs are increasingly evaporating. The data I’m referring to is from Naukri, owned by InfoEdge, a listed company based in Delhi. Naukri publishes an index called JobSpeak. We requested Naukri to share data going back to 2008–09. The data tells us that the decade ending in 2020 was a golden period for white-collar jobs. Every six years, the number of white-collar jobs doubled in India in that decade. Then came Covid. Post-Covid, we have a real problem. If you take the last five years, white-collar job growth has been about 3 per cent CAGR. If you take the last two years, it is closer to 1 per cent. White-collar jobs in India are growing at 1 per cent,” he said.
He said over the last three years, employment growth in the Indian IT services companies has come to a standstill and a similar picture exists in banking, financial services and investment (BFSI), retail, and media.
“And I repeat — this is before AI kicks in,” he said.
The Second Challenge: Cost Of Living
He said that while on hand jobs are drying up, on the other hand, the cost of living is rising.
“If you apply the Rule of 72 and assume 7-8 per cent cost inflation for middle-class items — transport, education, healthcare, insurance, eating out, cars — then every 8-9 years, the cost of middle-class living doubles. Between 2017–18 and now, the cost of living has broadly doubled. Are salaries growing at that pace? The data suggests otherwise. If anyone here is seeing consistent double-digit salary growth, please stand up and tell me I’m wrong. I’m not seeing that data,” he added.
He said using Nifty 50 data — comparing employee compensation growth versus consumer price index (CPI) inflation — it can be easily seen that pay growth is slower than inflation.
“Real incomes are shrinking. As a mental model, my reading is that real pay in India is effectively halving every eight years,” he said.
The Third Challenge: Borrowing Explosion
He said when jobs are scarce and real incomes shrink, then people resort to borrowing, and in India, most of this borrowing goes towards lifestyle expenditure.
“India has become a world champion in borrowing. Household debt excluding mortgages is now 34 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Before Covid, it was around 20 per cent. Total household debt excluding mortgages has tripled in the last five years. And what are these loans used for? According to surveys by Paisabazaar, the most common use of unsecured loans is to go on holiday. The second most common use is buying mobile phones. Music concerts also feature prominently. There are elements of compulsion in borrowing, but there’s also the aspiration to live unrealistic lifestyles fuelled by social media,” he added.
He said that India Stack has become a double-edged sword. He recently had to let go of an employee who had taken 800 loans in six years — most of them through his mobile phone.
“If you want to dig deeper, read the RBI’s Financial Stability Reports. The data is sobering,” he added.
The Retirement Math
He gave a simple scenario to illustrate the retirement arithmetic:
10 per cent annual returns post-tax until retirement
Retirement at 60
25 years of life thereafter
Annual post-retirement income need of Rs 20 lakh
“If I retire in 10 years, I will need roughly Rs 6 crore at retirement to generate that lifestyle. To build Rs 6 crore in 10 years, I need Rs 2-2.50 crore today. For many in my reasonably affluent social circle, Rs 2–2.5 crore today is a stretch. That points to a broader retirement crisis,” he said.
Are Indians Saving?
He said given these challenges, it would be safe to assume that Indians are saving aggressively, but that is not the case. Even affluent Indians are struggling to save, he said.
“We asked Dun & Bradstreet to survey 500 families in major Indian cities earning at least Rs 20 lakh post-tax per annum. That’s about seven times India’s per capita income. The findings were shocking.
One in two affluent Indians is not saving enough and 14 per cent of these families have nil savings.
Among the 30-45 age group — the critical retirement-building years — 40 per cent cannot save even 20 per cent of their income. Affluent Indians are struggling to save,” he added.
Real Estate: The Default Choice
He said the despite all the talk about equity markets, affluent Indians still rely heavily on real estate for retirement.
“Systematic data suggested that real estate delivers around 7 per cent pre-tax, 5 per cent post-tax — barely keeping pace with inflation. Yet it remains the main retirement asset,” he added.
The Missing Advisor
He said, it was surprising to find that 80 per cent of affluent Indians believed they did not have a financial advisor guiding them. “Whether you are a T20 cricketer or a middle-class professional in suburban Mumbai, you need an advisor to navigate ups and downs,” he added.
Three Solutions
He gave three solutions to tide over this crisis
Free Financial Planning: He said goal analysis and financial planning should become mainstream. Identifying a stock or fund won’t solve retirement, rather it’s important to understand that asset allocation and not stock picking drove 80 per cent of returns, according to research by Branson.
Global Diversification: He said an India-only investing approach won’t suffice. “Over the next decade, perhaps 50 per cent of portfolios will be globally diversified. Gift City has made global investing tax-efficient and accessible. Global equities offer lower volatility and strong long-term returns,” he said.
Emotional Buffers: There will be long periods of nil equity returns. In India, we saw this between 1993–2003, and 2007–2013. In the US, from 1967–1984. These extended flat periods typically followed strong bull runs.
“Recency bias leads people to overweight equities at the wrong time. If you enter your 50s with a heavily equity-loaded portfolio and then face seven years of nil returns, it can derail retirement.
We must build emotional buffers and realistic expectations. That’s because saving for retirement in India today is harder than it was two years ago — and unless we change behaviour, asset allocation, and expectations, it will get harder still,” he further said.
